Kris Tuttle

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    • Tue Nov 18th 02:57 AM
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      Commented on:
      Will There Be Room on the Software Cloud for Salesforce.com?
      Thanks for the comments on this. Some are a little rough. We do write posts that are based on small bits of information if we hear something that sounds different or new, even if it might not be conclusive. That's the kind of flow our clients want. As always we are just trying to be helpful. At the time of this writing and still today we have no position long or short in CRM.
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    • Tue Sep 23rd 12:07 PM
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      Commented on:
      Symantec Corp. CEO Shines at Shareholder Meeting
      Nobody denies that Symantec knows how to put on a show. They don't wow their customers quite so much.
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    • Sun Jul 20th 15:31 PM
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      Struggling AMD Is Still Searching for Inspiration
      For those actually trying to do work on AMD. ATI is a pretty interesting and valuable asset. However the AMD CPU business needs help. The cost of being the game is higher than ever and AMD may not be able to scale up; we'll see.

      Don't forget to look at the whole capital structure. Debt plays a major role, as do assets.

      Technologically there is still lots of opportunity but AMD as an independent company may not be able to take advantage of it. With NVDA also in the dumps it makes the M&A outcome even less visible.

      It's an interesting situation but INTC right now has all the momentum and resources in X86, they definitely "get" the high end graphics market even if NVDA and ATi/AMD are the leaders. There could be a positive wild card for AMD in the anti-trust work going against INTC. It could prod a buyer from Europe to buy AMD on the cheap.

      Investing in AMD requires a pretty complete research effort. If I were making a bet I'd say they get acquired by a European technology company but given the debt structure knowing the equity value stub isn't simple.
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    • Sun Jul 20th 15:22 PM
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      3G iPhone’s Top Five Component Beneficiaries
      You have to look at $ content and how it relates to GM contributions. Sockets don't help if the subject companies don't make money on the business. A useful analysis would include $ per component, likely total costs and then what the gm impact might be on the suppliers in question.
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    • Sun Jul 20th 14:37 PM
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      What Will It Take for Finisar to Reach the High End of Revenue Guidance?
      Hey Andrew, It would be more useful to see the absolute growth in T/10G $ to figure out how much heavy lifting is required to get it done. The base is now larger so comparing the current 45% to an early % increase off a small number can be misleading.

      When I build models for software companies I always look closely at absolute dollar changes QoQ and YoY as a key. My experience is that companies have a fairly sticky capacity to generate incremental revenue.

      Kris
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    • Mon Jun 2nd 14:33 PM
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      Will Interactive Data Survive at SEC Without Chris Cox?
      So 100,000 people are taking spreadsheet data and putting into documents to be filed and another 100,000 people are taking the documents and building spreadsheets with links back to the source. Reminds me of when every company had to hire data entry staff to input information from customer forms.

      XBRL is a bear but there has to be some kind of solution. The current process is slow, expensive and prone to error.
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    • Sun Jun 1st 14:48 PM
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      Commented on:
      Silverjet, RIP
      Talk about an industry that is in the "destruction"... phase of creative destruction. We believe that the long-term trends are towards more flexible, point to point travel and more shuttle like service between the large cities. There's lots of technology needed in the air and on the ground to pull this off but the work is in motion, it will just take time to get there. Broader questions remain about how the behavior of consumers, businesses and travel professionals will adapt to new options and different approaches to travel. In the short term, I expect to be attending far more meetings online!
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    • Fri May 30th 09:09 AM
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      PowerShares Water ETF Lacks Focus
      I think PHO is pretty much what it's supposed to be. It's a diverse bunch of stocks with some leverage to water infrastructure. There will certainly be better examples of these with more elaborate research behind them. For now though PHO is a decent proxy for those without the expertise to hold individual water plays. [R2 Capital owns a small position in PHO as we continue to work in the space to find more leveraged ways to play water.]
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    • Mon May 26th 11:30 AM
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      Commented on:
      Why Research In Motion Likes UMA
      That's true but... some carriers (like T-Mobile at least in the US) are doing a decent job of enabling functions to work over any available Wi Fi connection. This makes traveling with a something like an 8820 very effective for many of us that don't want to spend money but still need coverage outside of Wi-Fi.
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    • Fri May 9th 08:10 AM
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      Commented on:
      Business Intelligence: An Interview With IBM's Rob Ashe
      You need IBM GS to implement their BI now because I think they have a stack of about 527 different software products that are used to make it happen!
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    • Tue May 6th 02:28 AM
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      Liquidity Isn't Apple Pie
      Indeed we are in a strange period or at least it feels that way. There are big piles of money that are feeling pressure to make investments to put their capital "to work" even if they seem marginal. At the same time there are many 5x return style venture opportunities but they are too "small" for most of the funds doing rounds of "only" $5-15M or so. Even on the public market side it feels like institutional money is still recovering from losing billions on large "hedge" funds so they can't see their way clear to investing in solid traditional vehicles that return 10-15%/year with limited volatility.

      In short lots of the things that should be easy to fund are not and many of the things that do get funded should not as a function of the current system.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 10:40 AM
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      Micron’s Challenges
      Micron has had the image sensor business for years and it hasn't gone very far.
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    • Sun Apr 6th 14:24 PM
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      Leaving Google in No Man's Land
      I think the average investor perceives far more moving parts at Google than at Apple or Research in Motion. When technology stocks like these go down many investors can't maintain or get the conviction back to buy and hold the name. The simpler the story, the easier it is to get it back and become convinced. To me Apple is the clearest even though people are confused about the iPod transition that may happen this year.

      Even though the bulk of Google revenue comes from advertising the number of products, initiates and markets they are in is hard for investors to fully grasp. Even harder for them is knowing if companies like Microsoft, Amazon or eBay are doing something that might hurt prospects for Google.

      On top of it analysts cut near-term estimates and price targets based on the latest news blip. This causes investors to wonder about the long-term story even though it is not changed. For the record we established a fundamental valuation on Google a few months ago of $800 per share. Since nothing has changed the fair value estimate remains the same.

      Market sentiment and near-term news and noise will push the stock around but unless one doubts the fundamentals of the Internet one would want to own the stock at these levels.
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    • Wed Apr 2nd 07:29 AM
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      Promises, Promises: Waste Management's Case Against SAP
      In addition the infrastructure at WM is/was probably one of the worse ever encountered. The data and application integration issues alone were nearly insurmountable. WM is probably a good example of a company that needs to basically replace everything while the business runs. Not an easy task for anyone and most at WM seem to understand lots about waste management but not much about technology.
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    • Wed Apr 2nd 06:15 AM
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      Ignore Government Reports, Listen to J.C. Penney and DSW
      Makes total sense. The US consumer has to pull back across the board. JCP may be losing share but the mosaic suggests slower consumer spending for sure.
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