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    • Mon Nov 10th 22:20 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      11 Stocks Selling Below Cash
      Though some of these could be gems in the rough, there are usually good reasons for a company selling below net cash. And they're usually not positive. It's usually a sign that the company is dead, it's burn rate is very high, or both. This same argument was used for some of the internut companies a few years ago, as they burned through the remaining cash in a matter of months. No knowledge of these ones, but buyer beware if it's your only screen.
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    • Mon Nov 10th 22:14 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      'Good As Goldman' Not So Good
      That silly little chart would have been better if it showed the top 10 banks in the US with revenue growth % and P/E, and then compared to GS. That alone would make the article about 1 trillion x better than it is.
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    • Mon Nov 10th 22:12 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      'Good As Goldman' Not So Good
      I agree with other posters, worthless information about how much GS has fallen relative to other IBs. How about an article about how much leverage GS had, and how much profit came from its proprietary trading desk, and how much of that will be gone now that it is a regulated bank? I would even argue that GS is fine, but its stock price will continue to come down as its leverage is further unwound, and as investors realize it can't use leverage to get its earnings jacked like in the past, and probably can't make big bets due to regulation. But nothing like that (or anything else new) is in this article. Yawn...
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    • Mon Nov 10th 22:03 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Q.E.P. Company: Flooring the Future
      Fair enough. If I were putting any money on this company I would read the filings and listen to the conference calls. Still not compelling to me as a long, but I can see what you like about it. My own projections about the depth of this residential and commercial real estate cycle are probably different from yours, so I wouldn't touch anything related to real estate until we have truly bottomed out in the market.

      Good luck to you as well.


      On Nov 10 07:40 AM John Bradley wrote:

      > I appreciate the discussion. Again, my "sweeping assumptions" are
      > not based on just reading the cash flow statement in isolation. Please
      > review the quarterly and annual reports, not just the "cover sheets".
      > You asked my WHY the AR and inventory will correct, and I already
      > eluded to why in my prior response. This is from the latest 10-Q:
      > "the Company used net cash of $13.0 million associated with the increase
      > in receivables, inventory, trade payables and other accrued liabilities
      > principally related to the initial rollout of the national specialty
      > tile tools program, and for the upfront consideration paid related
      > to that program." Also, "During the first six months of fiscal 2009
      > the Company borrowed an additional $10.2 million on its lines of
      > credit primarily to finance the working capital requirements associated
      > with the rollout of the national specialty tile tools program."
      >
      >
      > Like I had said, they are rolling out a new program. Most companies
      > have to put money up to rollout new products. This is not an increase
      > related to normal operating problems. Like you said "Where there's
      > smoke there's fire unless you've read the fillings...". Well, I read
      > the fillings and you admit you didn't.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 00:10 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Q.E.P. Company: Flooring the Future
      I hear your comment. But how will they reverse it? They went from $1.8m negative cash flow in the May quarter to -$7.7m in the August quarter. That's the trend, and it's an accelerating negative one. Do you really think things will improve for flooring companies during the next 12 months?

      I don't think it's wise to make sweeping assumptions that they will reverse the trend. Unless you have something to add that supports your case, I stand by my analysis. And you are absolutely correct, I did minimal analysis and believe this is dead money. It would usually take a lot more than that. So why don't you write about WHY AR and inventory will correct? Where there's smoke there's fire unless you've read the filings and have something interesting that others have missed. Lehman said it had plenty of cash one month before it imploded. I don't believe management, I believe numbers. Cash flow does not lie (unlike earnings that you refer to in your article).
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 9th 13:01 PM
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      Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      Q.E.P. Company: Flooring the Future
      As of 8/31/08, they only had $990,000 of cash and were burning through much more than that in quarterly cash flow. It's pretty easy to see from that why it's trading at such a low level and for such low multiples. Without either turning cash flow positive or procuring additional debt or equity, this one could be dead in a matter of months.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 10:58 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Dual Strategy to Balance Banking Sector Trade
      I wouldn't touch JPM. The timing is uncertain, but with its derivative book and net exposure versus risk-based capital, it is a guaranteed zero sometime in this credit cycle. And unfortunately when JPM finally bites it, the government will be out of money (i.e., won't be able to print enough to make it happen).
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 24th 10:15 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE's Rollover Risk Supports Short Trade
      Wow, you might want to look at some actual numbers. Stock trading at 8x and paying a 7% dividend yield, plus half of it is industrial business. On top of that, you give no evidence of what the dollar amount or percentage impact would be from supposed rollover exposure. I wouldn't touch this as a short - valuation seems reasonable, paying a fat divididend yield (that a short has to pay out to the borrowee), and so far confirmed ratings. You might want to consider that the Feds asked GE to buy into the facility so that it gave the facility more credibility. PLUS, if I were GE, I would access all the sources of capital I could, regardless of how much I needed it. Why play a company like GE that could get flight to quality bids as this thing unwinds and it hits its earnings, when there are still plenty of banks that will be taken over by the government (to wit, JPM, C and FITB, among others).
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 15th 17:41 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Short Update on My Four Short Ideas
      User 227788 - Why do you like CFFN as a short?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 16th 00:31 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman: The End Game
      Says You ~

      Yeah, right, if you write it then everyone believes it and the economy is destroyed. Wake up, you fool. Leverage IS destroying the economy - this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. It's caused by excessive speculation, leverage and greed, and not buy short sellers or those who are waking people up by using their First Amendment rights.

      Go back to believing in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and God.
      View article »