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Latest Comments32 Comments
AIG's Bold Move and Why I'm Shorting the Long Bond
Perhaps you should be a congressman - they seem excellent at grandstanding petty things - even the use of corporate jets. CEO's time is valuable; and, flexibility and the use of a mobile working environment is just and proper.
The Smoking Gun of the Credit Crisis: FICO
Second, as more and more people have problems, the avergae scores are dropping.
At some point creditors [sellers] will have to lower credit standards or the markets for houses, cars, white-goods and furniture will continue to shrink. Of course they can lower prices. Not just offer lower priced options, but lower prices on the same item - costs are dropping.
And what about the car pirces? House prices come down, commodity prices come down - even food us dropping as shipping costs are lower.
But not those car prices. Discounting is not lowering. When someone actually lowers prices on an established model instead of giving rebates, they will set the new trend as telling it like it is. Peopl will flock to the truth-teller.
As for US legacy employment costs, the unions have caused a wage bubble - no forklift operator should be getting $103K. No person who attaches part A to part B should be getting a 73K package.
There is only one solution - you have to get rid of the union contracts and BR is the only way.
The government then has to do two things - guarantee car warrantees and underwrite the mortgages of the autoworkers who have bought based on their inflated wages and will require mortgage assistance,
This is the cheapest way out! Otherwise, they come back to the trough.
Solar Companies Overseas: Where the Sun Don't Shine No More
Sure some project will be delayed due to financing.
No mandates or incnetives are being pulled.
In any case, y-o-y revenues will be up dramatically.
LDK is an outright gift at 10
Find me another industry growing faster and we will talk about it!
Look at the recent LDK/BP deal and now today's JASO/BP deal.
BP is a quality customer and making a true commitment to solar.
Duke Power wants to put modules on customers' roofs. Why?
Can justify proximity to user mitigating losses during transmission.
Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst?
Why can't we get item or supplier info on actual sales?
Someone needs to be watching this closely with instore data collectors!
Unless, of course, you can tap the companies' register tapes being beamed to headquarters.
Four Chinese Solar Stocks Under Threat from Pollution
As for stocks, people panic and prices get crunched - start scaling in, at the first hint of growth watch oil prices soar and all will be right - again.
Canadian Solar: About to Be Eclipsed?
I hold [and daytrade] LDK that was just upgraded. As a supplier of wafers and soon to be one [if not the] lowest cost producers, they are much better off. c-Si will be with us for a long time, and as wafer production costs drop, better prices can be had by module makers.
But can CSIQ still compete by making its own wafers?
The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging the Market with an Obama Presidency
Four Reasons to Expect a Solar Boom
European [and now even US and China] mandates for renewable energy are real and large utilities have no problem with funding projects.
www.getsolar.com/blog/.../
www.spacemart.com/repo...
www.matternetwork.com/...
Some Stocks to Research for the Market Rebound
" UMG polysilicone solar (a much cheaper alternative to multicrystalline solar). "
UMG is simpy the purity of the raw product - whether mono- or multi- crystalline. It's less pure, thus cheaper, than solar grade silicon. Mono- or multi- depends on how the ingot is produced. Mono is produced by growing from a seed crystal, multi is produced by solidifying molten silicon.
Some Big Moves in Tech Today
LDK raised earnings - again!
Bailout Talks Lose Sight of the Cost Question
Treasury announces an auction of say $100B and break it into 4 categories - subprime, option-arm, other prime and home equity. Each category is broken into classes that give granularity to the underlying markets of pools that make up each MBS. Could be many per category, but lets say there are 5 per category for a total of 20 'bidding' traunches.
But it is a reverse auction, so they are 'offer' traunches. Each holder offers a price they will take for $X face value of MBS's to derive a pennies on the dollar price. For each traunch, the Treasury takes the lowest price and works upward until the total dollars allotted to the traunch have been reached. Thus 'we the people' get the best and lowest price and thus the best upside potential as the Treasury can hold the MBS's to maturity.
The prices will be higher than where institutions have been dumping and thus marks to market will be higher. So the holders of all similar MBS's will recover asset value and the credit markets open up.
But here is what will happen after the first auction - hedge funds and vultures will offer to buy the MBS's the Treasury just bought! Why, because the auction established floor prices. Thus the Treasury makes a quick profit and recovers part of its $700B in purchasing power - yes it revolves!
When the next auction is held, there could be lower prices in some traunches [but not likely] as some whose offers were not accepted the first time will make sure they get accepted the second time as they MUST get cash.
The taxpayers will make out like bandits - but the Treasury cannot say this publicly.
[note: JP Morgan gave some insight as to values of the 4 categories each in aggregate as part of their evaluation of WaMu. In a sense, they set a floor price.]
Paulson pulled out the bazooka because of the seizing of commercial paper and not because of GS losing value, that was an effect of the collapsing credit markets. They had the bazooka all the time as simply an outline and had considered many other alternatives including, briefly, the non-workable insurance plan. The plan offered was purposely an outline as only Congress can add the flesh - as they are doing.
There is no need for punitive actions against the institutions holding the MBS's - they are selling at the lowest price - that's punitive enough. Remember, the institutions include pension plans, insurance companies - not just banks! They thought they were buying the best rated traunches and still found out the value has dropped. They acted prudently with the information given to them by the rating agencies. So some would want these institutions that hold the people's retirement and annuity money to give a piece to the Treasury?
This will liquify the banking system, but will not prevent recession.
Poor Coverage of the Republican Plan
Treasury announces an auction of say $100B and break it into 4 categories - subprime, option-arm, other prime and home equity. Each category is broken into classes that give granularity to the underlying markets of pools that make up each MBS. Could be many per category, but lets say there are 5 per category for a total of 20 'bidding' traunches.
But it is a reverse auction, so they are 'offer' traunches. Each holder offers a price they will take for $X face value of MBS's to derive a pennies on the dollar price. For each traunch, the Treasury takes the lowest price and works upward until the total dollars allotted to the traunch have been reached. Thus 'we the people' get the best and lowest price and thus the best upside potential as the Treasury can hold the MBS's to maturity.
The prices will be higher than where institutions have been dumping and thus marks to market will be higher. So the holders of all similar MBS's will recover asset value and the credit markets open up.
But here is what will happen after the first auction - hedge funds and vultures will offer to buy the MBS's the Treasury just bought! Why, because the auction established floor prices. Thus the Treasury makes a quick profit and recovers part of its $700B in purchasing power - yes it revolves!
When the next auction is held, there could be lower prices in some traunches [but not likely] as some whose offers were not accepted the first time will make sure they get accepted the second time as they MUST get cash.
The taxpayers will make out like bandits - but the Treasury cannot say this publicly.
[note: JP Morgan gave some insight as to values of the 4 categories each in aggregate as part of their evaluation of WaMu. In a sense, they set a floor price.]
Paulson pulled out the bazooka because of the seizing of commercial paper and not because of GS losing value, that was an effect of the collapsing credit markets. They had the bazooka all the time as simply an outline and had considered many other alternatives including, briefly, the non-workable insurance plan. The plan offered was purposely an outline as only Congress can add the flesh - as they are doing.
There is no need for punitive actions against the institutions holding the MBS's - they are selling at the lowest price - that's punitive enough. Remember, the institutions include pension plans, insurance companies - not just banks! They thought they were buying the best rated traunches and still found out the value has dropped. They acted prudently with the information given to them by the rating agencies. So some would want these institutions that hold the people's retirement and annuity money to give a piece to the Treasury?
This will liquify the banking system, but will not prevent recession.
Paulson's Plan is About Marking to Market
They announce an auction of say $100B and break it into 4 categories - subprime, option-arm, other prime and home equity. Each category is broken into classes that give granularity to the underlying markets of pools that make up each MBS. Could be many per category, but lets say there are 5 per category for a total of 20 'bidding' traunches.
But it is a reverse auction, so they are 'offer' traunches. Each holder offers a price they will take for $X face value of MBS's to derive a pennies on the dollar price. For each traunch, the Treasury takes the lowest price and works upward until the total dollars allotted to the traunch have been reached. Thus 'we the people' get the best and lowest price and thus the best upside potential as the Treasury can hold the MBS's to maturity.
The prices will be higher than where institutions have been dumping and thus marks to market will be higher. So the holders of all similar MBS's will recover asset value and credit markets open up!
But here is what will happen after the first auction - hedge funds and vultures will offer to buy the MBS's the Treasury just bought! Why, because the auction established floor prices. Thus the Treasury makes a quick profit and recovers part of its $700B in purchasing power - yes it revolves!
When the next auction is held, there could be lower prices in some traunches [but not likely] as some whose offers were not accepted the first time will make sure they get accepted the second time as they MUST get cash.
The taxpayers will make out like bandits - but the Treasury cannot say this publicly.
[note: JP Morgan gave some insight as to values of the 4 categories each in aggregate as part of their evaluation of WaMu. In a sense, they set a floor price.]
Paulson pulled out the bazooka because of the seizing of commercial paper and not because of GS losing value, that was an effect of the collapsing credit markets. They had the bazooka all the time as simply an outline and had considered many other alternatives including, briefly, the non-workable insurance plan that. The plan offered was purposely an outline as only Congress can add the flesh - as they are doing.
There is no need for punitive actions against the institutions holding the MBS's - they are selling at the lowest price - that's punitive enough. Remember, the institutions include pension plans, insurance companies - not just banks! They thought they were buying the best rated traunches and still found out the value has dropped. They acted prudently with the information given to them by the rating agencies. So some would want these institutions that hold the people's retirement and annuity money to give a piece to the Treasury?
This will liquify the banking system, but will not prevent recession.
The Hedge Fund of America, LP
Such wholesale sales are great for the buyer, and this buyer has deep pockets. You will almost immediately see hedge funds wanting to get in on the action as the prices move up in successive auctions. Watch some stuff be sold immedaitely after purchase in some cases as the smart money will realize that the next sale will be at higher prices.
Thus the $700B credit line revolves and more than $700B in stuff can be moved from the banking system to other hands - hands other than the government as well.
The tax payers will win and win big as only the government can lend borrow at graet long term rates and hold for long term. The FED is the lender of last result, but the government is the buyer of last result.
Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?
If you cannot get it right, why post?
try 'poly-si' or to be more versed, look up p-si and a-si.
Stocks go up and down.
When the whorehouse burns, the pretty ones run with the ugly ones.
And the whorehouse IS burning.
When the fire is out, the pretty ones have a better chance of 'employment' and the ugly ones wither away.
Good work Dr Duru - keep it coming