Roger Nusbaum

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    • Fri Nov 28th 13:56 PM
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      In Search of the Next Reserve Currency
      First if this is going to happen I believe it will play out over many years, I think it has already started but to reiterate very slow moving. I too believe the euro is out in this context. The yuan makes sense to share the role with the US as it seems to becoming evermore the straw that stirs the drink. I also think something out of the GCC makes sense too, I believe demand for oil will increase, the recent numbers notwithstanding.

      As far as a "new international currency in ten years" I would suggest studying how long it took the EMU to come about and get to the point of a single currency. The only way it could happen in just ten years would be some sort of global martial law which if that were the case everyone would use the dollar.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 28th 10:35 AM
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      Macquarie Infrastructure Trust: Use It Only as a Portfolio Diversifier
      thanks for the comments. Auto credit If you are trying to copy Harvard or Yale then I suppose so but this is just my opinion, I do not want too much riding on any one thing in case something I can't see coming hits hard. I would note that Harvard and Yale have had a different experience of late as many of their illiquid holdings have really bit them including, I believe some absolute.


      On Nov 27 07:33 PM Auto Credit wrote:

      > So do you include RYMFX in this 2-3% narrow category or do you think
      > it deserves a higher weight? The last numbers I have show the Yale
      > and Harvard endowments at 18% and 26% in the absolute returns...
      > so if we're coming close to them we need 10 different things like
      > RYMFX?
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 27th 12:55 PM
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      Macquarie Infrastructure Trust: Use It Only as a Portfolio Diversifier
      MIC and BIP own assets and are generally meant to pay out an income stream off of those assets,they are not ETFs. IGF from iShares, which I own for clients is more along the lines of building the infrastructure and so would seem in line to benefit from the spending that appears to be on the way. MIC and BIP would not seem to specifically benefit from any spending plans.


      On Nov 27 11:10 AM D333GS wrote:

      > A question re infrastructure ETFs and Obama's upcoming infrastructure
      > spending: There is some hype starting re infrastructure ETFs . From
      > looking at the holdings of these ETFs, they seem hold companies that
      > own the infracture. Isn't the money going to be made by the companies
      > that repair the infrastructure? IE infrastructure construction companies
      > like SNC & Aecon?
      >
      > Many thanks
      >
      > John
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:48 PM
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      The Wrong Way to Think About Your Retirement Portfolio
      really? no portfolio? you really think it is all going to zero?


      On Nov 18 09:11 AM bosun.j wrote:

      > The wrong way to think about your portfolio is that you will have
      > a portfolio!
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 08:54 AM
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      Commented on:
      Survival Guide for the Next Two Years: Preferred Stocks and Corporate Bonds
      probably is quantumonline.com
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    • Fri Oct 31st 19:38 PM
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      Thoughts for a Thorny Thursday
      no idea if anyone should buy it--i own a little PST.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 12th 08:41 AM
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      Act Defensively, But Not from Fear
      khwender, the trade turned out to be correct, could have just as easily gone the other way. simple a matter of luck. your statement has fallacies galore. hopefully you can detach enough from the situation to see that.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 9th 14:25 PM
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      What Will Happen to Closed End Funds?
      Argent, what about California? Where there is one municipality there could be others.

      User 7013, I don't write for 'PR.' While there is no talking someone out of a notion like yours, how is this one specifically PR? TSCM doesn't pay by the eyeball. Neither is there any sort of tout.
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    • Tue Oct 7th 08:39 AM
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      Getting Ready for... Anything
      Exponent, the market did warn, you can check my archives, it went below its 200 DMA in 2007 and it followed the 2% rule in q4 2007.

      the 2% rule is an average 2% decline three months in a row. it happens rarely outside of a bear and so marks the beginning of a bear.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 6th 22:38 PM
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      Getting Ready for... Anything
      Rabbito, for some folks going short is the answer, clearly. But that is not the right trade for most folks, maybe for you, don't know, but not most people.

      deflation better than inflation? that might be a tough sell.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 14:00 PM
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      200 DMA As a Sign to Re-Enter Equities
      I keep it simple for 2 reasons, one it generally works and two no one approach can always be the single best.

      I am top down so picking big picutre first. as far as fundies, i think different things are more important with some types of stocks while other measures important for other types of stocks. meaning sizing up a utility stock and a brazilian resource stock the same way doesn't seem to be the best path.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 18:27 PM
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      Fear Goes Hand in Hand with Drama
      LarryH, a normal bear market is a decline of 30 point something percent which is 1095 on the SPX. If it bottoms at 1080 I think normal turns out to be a good call. If it bottomed at 1000 would you call that much worse than normal? If you would then in your opinion 1095 would be a bad call.

      I have been very consistent saying that I am more focused on portfolio defense then being right about this (i say that in this article). As a matter of fact the action in the broad stock market is not worse than normal.

      How can it be worse than normal until it is worse than normal?
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    • Mon Sep 29th 15:44 PM
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      Fear Goes Hand in Hand with Drama
      Smarty Pants I don't mean anything by 'Drama' as that is not the title i used on my blog for this post, I called it storm a brewin' so you need to ask the editors what that means.

      phdinsuntanning, not sure that is a conservative survival kit. It might be a goldmine in a down market but if the market staged an improbable rally that mix would get obliterated. it is a huge bet that could work of course but there would be blood if the low ends up being today; not my prediction but clearly a possibility.
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    • Wed Sep 24th 14:05 PM
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      Making and Protecting Money in a Bear Market
      goalpost, for a little context...i have been writing about taking defensive action when SPX went below its 200 DMA and then getting back in when it goes above. that might happen soon or, as you say, not.

      One theme I have been working with is that if this becomes a systemic thing in the US, ok, but there are other countries where this is cyclical and that is where we will need to look to put money.
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    • Wed Sep 24th 08:58 AM
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      Commented on:
      Making and Protecting Money in a Bear Market
      more like swap than futures. the markets that facilitate the running of the funds are impaired due to short sale restrictions. this includes the derivatives of those markets.
      View article »