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Latest Comments38 Comments
We Have a Debt to Discharge
We Have a Debt to Discharge
bricki and Broken...It's not like this stuff is something new or made up. It's recorded history that's been going on thousands of years. While empires, systems of government, cultures throughout the ages have been different, it is the similarities we have to look at. The ecomomics of fiat dollars, debt, and powerful governments who think they can manipulate anything have not changed. It has never worked, and it never will. The Fed/gub'mint is killing the USA, and it is up to people who do get it, like Mr Merkel here, to be the voice of reason. It is patriotic and morally right for those who grasp the reality of our country's current fiasco to speak of it and to convince others of our friends, families and anyone who will listen of this.
An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's
When in the same breath he disqualifies it by saying "I don't know what the market is going to do short term", you better watch out. Short term for him is a couple of years. Very few small investors have the money, the patience, and most importantly...the emotional state, to watch their positions drop another 40-50% in two more years or even sit flat for 2-3 years (should they be so fortunate in their selection process). Many of the people that get sucked into these sucker rallies will be selling shares to Buffett (figuratively) over the next 2-3 years.
It may be a great time for Buffett to buy, but that doesn't mean it is for the rest of us. And Buffett d$#n well knows it's a treacherous time for Joe the Plumber to be buying stock! Anybody who thinks he doesn't know that needs to just go back to the their fantasy world and forget about reality for now until it slaps them so hard in the face that they wake up!
Does It Pay To Follow Buffet Blindly?
Anybody that can read long term charts of the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, or individual stocks can see that it could easily get a lot worse (stock prices). I wouldn't be following Buffett right now, I'd wait awhile longer and buy for less than him. There are stocks I like that Buffett has already owned for a year or two that are trading under his best purchase price ever, and even farther below his average purchase price.
If I can watch them slide and get them for half what Buffett bought them, why would I want to watch his self-serving release---"It's time to start buying stocks because they are dropping below my purchase price and everyone knows I'm smarter than the rest of the market", and then start buying stock?
Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out
Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
Fiat currency is doomed as it always has been. If you don't have some of your money in gold you are a fool! Gold will definitely go up and down but I'm with Peter Schiff on this one...gold is going way up long term. Our governments, the central banking elite, and the Fed guarantee it!
Our Coming Depression
Our Coming Depression
For us to move forward, the accceptance of our mistakes is necessary, and perhaps the most important factor. Our administration has been lying to us, saying the economy is not that bad, and we are not in a recession. How does it help to sugarcoat that fact, and lessen the acceptance of this current economic situation?
Chris B, I have been wrong in the past and attacked you unfairly in some instances. It is clear to me that we may be more in agreement on some things than I'd previously assumed though not in agreement on many. I absolutely agree with you that some of the best investments anyone can make in our current situation, are in educations on things that will be useful to a rebuilding country and their fellow citizens.
Right now my top investments are in books, educational courses, and a couple of businesses that should be greatly helpful to my fellow Americans who are hurting financially. I also believe strongly in the need to get passports for my family, hold some assets denominated in precious metals, and also to get emergency related supplies for the protection and support of my family.
We save and invest much now (though not in the US stock market), are producing things of value to the average American, and consume/spend very little. This should be the mantra for every American.
Oh, and one more thing, vote out EVERY Democrat or Republican who voted for the bailout bill. Hell, vote out any of them not endorsed by Ron Paul. Write in a candidate, like Ron Paul, who has an honest voting record that doesn't flip-flop on every issue. At least we know how he will handle the situation, and if he was wrong we can't be dis-illusioned by having voted for him, because he's been voting his beliefs for 30 years without fail, and will continue to do so in any governmental function!
Voting for Obama, a Constitutional law professor before being a politician, who being one of the more educated people about the Constitution in this country, gave a great and impassioned speech about how the Patriot Act would rape our Constitution, then proceeded to vote in favor of that very same act, will not help this country one iota. And this is not even including the facts as to where his campaign monies originate.
Voting for McCain, who shows so little a grasp of economics, that he can't even answer valid economic questions intelligently, is equally ludicrous. Not only that, but history has shown us that putting men in positions of power who have been tortured, is a VERY bad idea.
I don't know it all, but I learn every day.
Surviving the Financial Nuclear Winter
To Gabe Borenstein: Flight to quality? You are referring to the US dollar as quality, or are you being sarcastic? I don't think anyone would call the US dollar quality right now. The only thing the Fed knows how to do is print money and devalue the dollar. The crisis is being addressed effectively? What planet are you on? We pass this $850 billion bailout bill which has no more effect at loosening credit than the trillion already thrown at it, the Fed sees this and starts the printing press further devaluing the dollar, and you want us out of foreign markets and into this market and US dollars? I guess you are entitled to your opinion, but I think you have it about as perfectly opposite of the reality as you possibly could.
To Nikola: I'm with you on the everything is so cheap talk. I think with the economic problems we are facing, the crap on balance sheets that is being valued as something, the government trying to prop up housing that needs to be devalued to more true reflections of value, we may be only approaching fair value on the market as a whole. However, when markets/economies are bad and the outlook is gloomy stocks and markets tend to trade below fair value quite a bit. In my opinion, the market will be trading well below fair value minus 10% before there is any meaningful uptrend. If the government and Fed continue as they have recently, we have a LOT more than two years before people will have forgotten this. Right now it looks alot more like mid-1929, like Smarty_pants above said.
There is much pain ahead for a very large percentage of the US population. Due to unforeseen things that happened to my family with really bad timing (around 911 and right after the tech crash), I could be in that group. No we didnt lose a penny in tech stocks or buy unaffordable, overvalued housing with loose credit. We did have a tragedy that cost us our home, my business and all our assets.
It's the people like us, that recently had misfortune, and have spent the last 4-5 years trying to work our way out of that misfortune that are in pretty dire staits now. Buying into this market, when our government and the Fed are making the same kind of mistakes that made the depression a Great Depression I don't believe is a great idea. I'm in agreement that the companies (THAT SURVIVE) may not break even on their current share price for a VERY long time.
Until our leaders and yes, the people too, accept the causes of this chaos, and we become a nation of savers and producers again, I really don't see things improving meaningfully.
Why Is Everybody Selling as Buffett Is Loading Up?
What a lot of people are not getting (fortunately more and more are everyday as evidenced by public reaction to the bailout) is that what we have going on here is something that our elected officials and the fed have created over a very long period of time. It will take a long time to correct as well. This chaos that just really started to gain traction in the last month is just getting started. The bailout and massive printing of money by the Fed is only going to prolong the pain and drag this thing out.
This time Warren's a little early. He may have the money to weather it, but I'd rather buy at 50% less than he bought.
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
Not catching this falling knife, I am out and in cash. There will be other ways to make money, but it won't be by going long stocks denominated in US dollars. I'll look to buy in the next 5 years or so, but we've got a LOT more downside to go.
Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
Yes, indeed I have considered going to cash. It would have been a much better choice for me had I done it a month ago. There are deep value plays that just keep getting cheaper, but to take advantage of them or to go to cash now requires me to lock in pretty big losses on what I already own.
When the markets are brutal and being manipulated to the extent they are now, it's a hard choice. A combination of in depth fundamental analysis, with reference to technicals served me well for many years. New money is going to dividend payers that are heavily undervalued, but as to the money already in play that is sitting down massively on the last couple of weeks activity...hmmm?
Contemplating rolling all my stock positions into a business idea. Businesses that stand to profit from economic and market chaos may be the best of all possible places for my money to be now. Many of these types of businesses may not be publicly traded. Any change in my strategy of buying and holding (for 1-10 years) great companies that are heavily undervalued requires me to lock in large losses.
The business plan I am drawing up is a winner in normal economic conditions due to fundamental macro changes that are inevitable over the next 25 years or so, and are accelerating. The real plus is that if they succeed in really screwing up the US economy any further, my business at the least should be just as profitable, but most likely even more profitable. Why? Because I'll be able to obtain my inventory at even better prices, while the product in the form that I'm selling it will benefit people hurting financially.
oldtrdr you may have helped me answer my own question. I just find it hard to lock in the last couple of weeks losses, when one of the things that has made me successful is having the balls to not micro manage and lock in losses when things look bleak. I guess we'll all be watching to see what happens Monday.
I'll be working very hard at this new business, while keeping an eye on the markets and my bleeding portfolio for now.
Thinking About the Next Six Months