Steve Pluvia

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  • Lehman Recommends Pair Trades in Solar Stocks
    Worst case scenario: Germany cuts subsidy by the maximum discussed [30%]. Thin film avg sales price [ASP] is dropping to $2.00-2.20 ASP in 2009; $1.80-2.00/watt in 2010 due to new product from AMAT plants and CIGS companies, [Nanosolar, ASTI, Miasole, Global Solar].

    ***Bottom line: the subsidy was too high for product that at these prices is at grid parity with coal power.***

    WHAT THE MARKET MISSED YESTERDAY -- THIN FILM PV IS AT GRID PARITY

    Grid parity with coal power = installed cost below $3.50-3.75 -- this is possible with ASP below $2.20/watt. Every thin film mfgr will be selling below 2.20 in '09-'10.

    Now is the time to LOAD UP on thin film, particularly CIGS companies. ASTI is the ONLY CIGS public play. Thin film profit margins will be 50-70% and sales will be max-plant-capacity for more than 7yrs.

    Take advantage of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater; most on the street don't understand the difference between thin-film PV and c-SI -- take advantage of this opportunity while its available.
    May 30 09:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions
    Andrew, one other thing re: AMAT -- from my discussions with AMAT, nobody is really considering buying their a-SI line as the efficiency is way too low.
    May 16 09:36 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions
    Andrew -- Re: AMAT's Sunfab line:

    "Their Sunfab line utilizes readily available amorphous silicon instead of more exotic rare metals such as tellurium in cdte or indium in CIGS."

    Actually AMAT has a CDTE and a a-Si line; The last time I talked to AMAT's people, the a-SI line efficiency is expected to be 5-6% -- not 9% as you suggested.

    I am not aware of any a-SI that produces 9% efficiency from a commercial line, I would not expect AMAT who is new and well behind the curve in this technology, to break any records with Gen-1 equipment.
    May 16 09:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Energy Conversion Devices Ready for a Comeback?
    1. ENER has an a-SI product with VERY low efficiency [6-7%]; a-SI is not cost competitive with c-SI or CdTe.

    2. Comparing FSLR to ENER is ridiculous. ENER cannot cost compete and has no technology improvement on the horizon that will ever allow them to reduce the installed cost of their product to a price competitive with CdTe or CIGS, or Chinese produced c-SI when poli prices drop.

    3. The shingle solar product is a JOKE;
    A) it cannot be serviced or cleaned,
    B) it will get shredded by ice in heavy snow;
    C) installed costs are ridiculously high

    disclosure -- we do not have a short or long position in ENER, but we know the solar space well.
    May 09 10:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
    supershort -- you're swimming up stream. hi growth justifies all hi-tech hi multiples. has since the term tech was born. cost competitive renewables will all be taken MUCH higher as the green tech boom begins. get on the bus or get run over -- like you just did.
    Apr 01 19:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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