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Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader

I wasted 43 seconds reading this pointless scribble
Jun 23 08:58 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades

GERMAN SUBSIDY CUTS DON'T MATTER TO THIN FILM PV

Worst case scenario: Germany cuts subsidy by the maximum discussed [30%]. Thin film avg sales price [ASP] is dropping to $2.00-2.20 ASP in 2009; $1.80-2.00/watt in 2010 due to new product from AMAT plants and CIGS companies, [Nanosolar, ASTI, Miasole, Global Solar].

***Bottom line: the subsidy was too high for product that at these prices is at grid parity with coal power.***

WHAT THE MARKET MISSED YESTERDAY -- THIN FILM PV IS AT GRID PARITY

Grid parity with coal power = installed cost below $3.50-3.75 -- this is possible with ASP below $2.20/watt. Every thin film mfgr will be selling below 2.20 in '09-'10.

Now is the time to LOAD UP on thin film, particularly CIGS companies. ASTI is the ONLY CIGS public play. Thin film profit margins will be 50-70% and sales will be max-plant-capacity for more than 7yrs.

Take advantage of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater; most on the street don't understand the difference between thin-film PV and c-SI -- take advantage of this opportunity while its available.
May 30 09:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Steve Pluvia

Comment Stream » CY

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Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader

German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades

Steve Pluvia's Comments Stream Stats

Stock Market Opinion & Analysis