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German Subsidy Fears Trigger Solar Downgrades

GERMAN SUBSIDY CUTS DON'T MATTER TO THIN FILM PV

Worst case scenario: Germany cuts subsidy by the maximum discussed [30%]. Thin film avg sales price [ASP] is dropping to $2.00-2.20 ASP in 2009; $1.80-2.00/watt in 2010 due to new product from AMAT plants and CIGS companies, [Nanosolar, ASTI, Miasole, Global Solar].

***Bottom line: the subsidy was too high for product that at these prices is at grid parity with coal power.***

WHAT THE MARKET MISSED YESTERDAY -- THIN FILM PV IS AT GRID PARITY

Grid parity with coal power = installed cost below $3.50-3.75 -- this is possible with ASP below $2.20/watt. Every thin film mfgr will be selling below 2.20 in '09-'10.

Now is the time to LOAD UP on thin film, particularly CIGS companies. ASTI is the ONLY CIGS public play. Thin film profit margins will be 50-70% and sales will be max-plant-capacity for more than 7yrs.

Take advantage of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater; most on the street don't understand the difference between thin-film PV and c-SI -- take advantage of this opportunity while its available.
May 30 09:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Lehman Recommends Pair Trades in Solar Stocks

Worst case scenario: Germany cuts subsidy by the maximum discussed [30%]. Thin film avg sales price [ASP] is dropping to $2.00-2.20 ASP in 2009; $1.80-2.00/watt in 2010 due to new product from AMAT plants and CIGS companies, [Nanosolar, ASTI, Miasole, Global Solar].

***Bottom line: the subsidy was too high for product that at these prices is at grid parity with coal power.***

WHAT THE MARKET MISSED YESTERDAY -- THIN FILM PV IS AT GRID PARITY

Grid parity with coal power = installed cost below $3.50-3.75 -- this is possible with ASP below $2.20/watt. Every thin film mfgr will be selling below 2.20 in '09-'10.

Now is the time to LOAD UP on thin film, particularly CIGS companies. ASTI is the ONLY CIGS public play. Thin film profit margins will be 50-70% and sales will be max-plant-capacity for more than 7yrs.

Take advantage of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater; most on the street don't understand the difference between thin-film PV and c-SI -- take advantage of this opportunity while its available.

May 30 09:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions

Andrew, one other thing re: AMAT -- from my discussions with AMAT, nobody is really considering buying their a-SI line as the efficiency is way too low.
May 16 09:36 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions

Andrew -- Re: AMAT's Sunfab line:

"Their Sunfab line utilizes readily available amorphous silicon instead of more exotic rare metals such as tellurium in cdte or indium in CIGS."

Actually AMAT has a CDTE and a a-Si line; The last time I talked to AMAT's people, the a-SI line efficiency is expected to be 5-6% -- not 9% as you suggested.

I am not aware of any a-SI that produces 9% efficiency from a commercial line, I would not expect AMAT who is new and well behind the curve in this technology, to break any records with Gen-1 equipment.
May 16 09:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Senate May Kill Solar Rally

WRONG

"Solar stocks have been rallying on reports that the House this week will approve a bill that includes extensions of tax credits for renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biomass."

Stocks are rallying because of excellent earnings news, strong forward earnings guidance and growth.

It is clear renewable energy bills during this administration vs the next will be very different. I don't think anyone in the renewable business is putting much weight behind legislation that will certainly be modified/improved next year.
May 15 09:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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