Steve Pluvia
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Latest Comments87 Comments
What Obama Needs to Know about Tim Geithner, the AIG Fiasco and Citigroup
"Why fund a leveraged wager of CDSs with taxpayers money?"
I answered why we cannot let AIG fail; if we let them fail this happens:
-- All foreign held debt insured by AIG blows up...
-- US treasury and corporate debt immediately has zero credibility;
-- US corporations and have zero borrowing power for short term trade and expansion.
-- Trade grinds to a halt as foreign partners no longer honor purchase orders from US corporations.
-- Run on all banks;
-- The dollar gets crushed; and,
-- The US has very little ability to jump start the US economy with spending
Most do not understand Lehman, Merrill et al packaged ANYTHING with a revenue stream almost ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD into an asset back security, then created synthetic "bonds" when they found it easier than rounding up assets with revenue.
Many of these were insured by AIG. If AIG fails within a week we have a worldwide meltdown. The idea of letting AIG fails demonstrates the author of this article has no idea what he's talking about or is supremely ignorant.
A simpler example is this: Imagine New Orleans after Katrina -- except we let every insurance company out of their obligation to pay policy holders to rebuilding homes/properties. Not only would New Orleans no longer be a city, the lack of confidence in all insurance would go down the toilet.
AIG is a big bag of sh*t, no doubt about it. But letting AIG fail instantly makes commercial paper world wide into toilet paper.
What Obama Needs to Know about Tim Geithner, the AIG Fiasco and Citigroup
Are you *seriously* suggesting the U.S. let AIG blow-up?
So let me see if I get your point...
Let AIG fail; All foreign held debt insured by AIG blows up...
-- US treasury and corporate debt immediately has zero credibility;
-- US corporations and have zero borrowing power for short term trade and expansion.
-- Trade grinds to a halt as foreign partners no longer honor purchase orders from US corporations.
-- Run on all banks;
-- The dollar gets crushed; and,
-- The US have very little ability to jump start the US economy with spending
Oy freakin vey. Your idea is ridiculous. Clearly you don't understand the implications of what you propose.
SunTech Power: Three Points to Consider for Q3 Earnings
Lower Demand = Lower PV ASP
Lower ASP = Lower C-Si Margin;
Winner = producer with lowest production cost/watt
Loser = the author of this article and others here who don't understand the key metric for PV which is production cost/watt
PV MFGR's that are winners are thin film producers with production cost around $1 and install costs below $3.50/watt. If you don't know who this is, stop investing your own money.
Alt Energy ETFs: Separating Profit Potential From the Hype
Paulson Plan: The Death of the Dollar & Free Markets
Getting Charged Up About Lithium
1. Lithium in not rare;
2. $500 25kwh Lithium Batteries -- coming to a Th!nk car near you:
ARGONNE, Ill. (July 17, 2008)—Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory and their industrial partners have won two R&D 100 Awards for innovative fluid sealing and lithium-ion battery technologies.
www.anl.gov/Media_Cent...
"EnerDel/Argonne Advanced High-Power Battery for hybrid electric vehicles
The EnerDel/Argonne lithium-ion battery is a highly reliable and extremely safe device that is lighter in weight, more compact, more powerful and longer-lasting than the nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) )batteries in today's hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).
The battery is expected to meet the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium's $500 manufacturing price criterion for a 25-kilowatt battery, which is almost a sixth of the cost to make comparable Ni-MH batteries intended for use in HEVs. It is also less expensive to make than comparable Li-ion batteries. That cost reduction is expected to help make HEVs more competitive in the marketplace and enable consumers to receive an immediate payback in gas-cost savings rather than having to wait seven years for the savings to surpass the premium placed on HEVs."
GT Solar: Will the Sun Shine On This Solar IPO?
Who Will Crack the CIGS Nut in Thin Film?
CIGS, like all PV must be constructed in a "clean room" like a giant semiconductor. CIGS can use flexible backing and encapsulation that reduces weight, reduces transport costs and provides more options for building integration during construction. The primary advantage of CIGS is the ability to manufacture much more rapidly and at a lower cost than traditional PV -- known as "crystalline PV" or c-Si.
Hope that helps
Steve P
Who Will Crack the CIGS Nut in Thin Film?
We have evaluated all of the CIGS players and came to very similar conclusions; we're long development co ASTI [because its the only public CIGS pure play + quality mgnt + depth of experience] but would buy Global Solar if it were public. As you noted in earlier articles, Global operated their pilot plant for 3 years before effectively 'perfecting' their production line.
While many dispute Nanosolar's claims, they have installed a 1mw solar farm [germany] using their product which is the largest CIGS install in the world. Definitely worth watching, and should they become public forcing them to demonstrate their claims, they could be a world beater.
Steve Pluvia
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
This article is a fantastic example of pathetic research.
Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader
Evergreen Solar Hopes for Bullish Response to 'Analyst Day'
Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
VP of Nonsense,
I never "pumped" FSLR, I just corrected fact-errors made by ridiculous shorts. As I said then, I have never been long FSLR, and I doubt I will ever be in the future.
Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
"Since I think that thin film's cost advantage will be greater today than at any day in the future, the opportunity for big gains from investing in thin film has passed."
Udderly ridiculous statement. "cost advantage" is not the issue, it's growth and margins. CIGS has the highest profit margin potential and unlimited growth because they will be selling product that can be installed at grid parity prices.
c-Si is looking at margins shrinking to zero from now until at least '10; That means PE's growing due to shrinking profits, or earnings turning to losses -- and thus no PE. During that time thin film companies will be expanding using profits.
As to this info being know by the street and baked in the cake -- baloney. AMAT was not considered a threat capable of driving PV price down until Signet Solar announced they completed their AMAT plant [pr dated May 23]. Even then, few understood the significance of this event. Most thought like you, c-Si could survive until poly prices drop with growing sales and margins in the 20's.
Smart money now knows c-Si margins will go to zero in the next 12 months and they fled the c-Si sector like rats abandoning ship.