svosavvy

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  • Blockbuster: Another Nail in the Coffin
    bbi hasn't been legitimate competition for nflx for some time now. nflx has graduated to a new set of competitors, ones that are more on par for this well run company. The competition is now vudu hulu aapl and other internet media companies. This should scare cable into changing their model before they become an infrastructure play. long nflx, short nflx puts
    Jan 07 10:12 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Three Top Canadian Royalty Trusts
    Not to be a downer, but, pwe in their last quarterly guaranteed their distribution level through to the jan payout. Well, we're here I wouldn't be surprised to see a cut out of them next month. I am still long pwe (and pvx). One of my main reasons for liking the canroy's is the fact they must payout 90% of their takings which leads to very high yields which lend a margin of safety. Honestly in today's environment if I can get a 5+% yield out of something then I'm pretty happy. I bought some pwe at $27 a while back, but, at the current distribution I'm still at 15% and if they cut it in half it's like a +or- 7% still not too shabby. I guess my point is they are not allowed to not pay a dividend unless they make no money. Try and find another class that must pay you something, heck I know people who piled into fcx for the dividend and then they cut it altogether, now they must wait for share appreciation to be their payout, good luck. This is a nongrowth environment so imho you have to look for something that will pay you a stagnation tax (that's code for dividend).
    Dec 31 22:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • General Electric: Not Quite a Value Trap, More Like a Value Pit
    I agree with the vince farrell comment. That guy would put a buy rating on the titanic while it was sinking.
    Dec 30 22:27 pm |Rating: +2 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities
    Good input about global warming. Seems to be becoming the new religion. The only problem about being a follower of any religion is that as a generality we only follow the parts we like, visa vis driving your car to the global warming rally listening to folksy rants on your i-stuff made of petrochemicals. I always give more weight to those who are seeking the answers instead of preaching the answers.
    Dec 30 15:14 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • General Electric: Not Quite a Value Trap, More Like a Value Pit
    During all the gloom and doom try not to forget that ge asked for the buffet money to bargain hunt when things got bad, we're not to bad yet. Lets wait a couple of months for this "crisis" to sink in on "main street".
    As far as the dividend goes, it's probably one of the cheaper ways to capitalize debt by retaining shareholders instead of fundraising when they peel off because of a dividend cut. After all %7.92 probably isn't that bad of a deal for a legitimate loan.
    I agree their washing machines suck, but, their jenbacher engines don't. I can relate in my mind this whole "crisis" is much like a hard winter, and much like an animal must have a healthy layer of fat to survive it so must companies. Their capital peers have been laid to waste and artificially kept on life support via tarp money (yes I know they are getting it too) much like a wounded deer that an animal lover will nurse back to health so it can go play in traffic another day. I guess the question is "do you feel lucky punk!" If the value pit is 1000 feet deep we need to see the bottom bcause if we have only fallen 900 feet down it the 100 remaining feet could still kill you. Or have we fallen 995 feet and this is it who knows. It is kind of sad to see a stalwart "safe" investment reduced to a "speculative"... play.
    Dec 30 11:04 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • S&P's Downgrade of Financials Is a Definitive Bear Signal
    I whole heartedly agree with the sentiment of the article and the cautious tone of the responses. Shorting financials could be really dangerous here. After all equities rise and fall through the whims of mr market, not raw data.
    Dec 22 10:19 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dollar vs. Gold - Can We Trust This Change?
    Honestly doomsdaying drives me nuts. If you really want to know what the end of the world looks like go ask a hard working somali family that has to live through this crap every day what it feels like. We are so spoiled in this country it literaly makes me sick. I like JL's thoughts, if you stuck your head in the sand like an ostrich say in the 70's when it looked way worse than this look what you would have missed. Life in this country is a gift. Where else can you sit on your ass looking at a screen for a living and collect a check?
    Dec 12 22:27 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dollar vs. Gold - Can We Trust This Change?
    ok, this thread has totally left the realm of economics. If you want to doomsday, then the best investment is a good set of social skills to get your own little mad max motorcycle gang going. A mass of stupid people would inundate even the most well armed woodchuck. And when they came for you, you should pray you don't own anything of value.
    As far as bullets go the only ones gaining value over the years are for hard to find old calibers. They increase in value like your antiques. The workhorse rounds like the .223, 7.62 nato, .30-06, .300 wm all are cheaper. The nato stuff is super cheap now because of supply glut. 12 gauge remmy sluggers are 2.25 for a box of 5, but, I prefer brenneke.
    Dec 12 22:13 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dollar vs. Gold - Can We Trust This Change?
    actually ammo would be a tremendously bad investment. It cost more relatively in the past due to innovation kinda like investing in vcr tapes, just go to walmart it's a dime a dozen now. I get your gist though, just having a bit of fun kind of like Jimmy.
    Dec 11 23:07 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dollar vs. Gold - Can We Trust This Change?
    If you currently have us dollars then you are king right now. Your dollar is currently very strong. Eventually the scale will tip in the opposite direction through catalysts mostly already mentioned. You do not have to be a doomsdayer to like gold. Gold in essence will "freeze time" for the dollars you convert. Just a thought, as a shareholder I do not like to see the issuance of additional shares in the company I am investing in. One should think about what the dollar represents, it is my belief that a dollar represents an equity stake in the grand ole US of A. Since 1971 the dollar has been backed by the "goodwill" of our country. Honestly it was the same during the gold standard because there was never enough gold (or silver) to meet a massive dollar call anyway. If we dilute ourselves in a big way, I honestly could believe we may undergo a "goodwill impairment". We have a couple things going for us 1: nobody loves cheap chinese crap (merchandise) like us, so in order to be a debtor nation we must buy stuff, therefore, creditor nations must have an outlet to sell their sh*t in exchange for dollars (a seat at the table). This could really blow up for us when our consumer status is supplanted by another population (probably china in 15 years). 2: the dollar is our currency and everyone else's problem (paraphrased from "The Goldwatcher" by Katz) we get to spend in our dollars then take in and hold dollars to leverage against from our creditors, a total win win while it lasts. I have a "tell" that I am following maybe it's right or maybe it's wrong but it's mine anyway. I personally think the lower the fed funds rate goes the stronger the dollar in my mind ( I know it's counter intuitive and everyone has let me know) A couple weeks ago Bernanke has said he will take measures beyond a zero rate. Basically I look to buy gold at zero rate and buy more after Bernanke's backstop measures. Think about it, when is the dollar stronger? When it buys more OR when it yields more interest? I think the prior. Just think about it, oh yeah and I agree buy firearms because when they are outlawed they will be worth more like prohibition booze, current day opium, and post FDR gold.
    Dec 11 22:12 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil: Major Short Squeeze Around the Corner?
    imho
    the opec cut pop is going on right now, only the bag holders will be waiting for the actual meeting announcement.
    Dec 08 10:10 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Uncle Ben Signals the End Game
    good comment derryl,

    That's one thing to be thankful for is that we don't have states printing their own money anymore. That and we're not using moonshine as a currency. So it's not that bad after all in the grand scheme of things.
    Dec 02 18:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Uncle Ben Signals the End Game
    you can never have the gold standard back. The gov't was never true about dollar/gold ratio anyway. The dollar stands for the hard work and value our country represents. If you have a dollar then you have a share in america, just like any company share dilution is never good. We are trapped in a liquidity nightmare, prior generations never taught ours about how to manage money and now the world is denominated in dollars and world creditors give us their dollars to invest as credit and we (the debtor) spend them to leveraged infinity. This will work until a new base of consumer (and currency) is found probably the chinese when they mainstream. When this happens we will be usurped by their concentricity and be forced to the periphery. This is the debtors quandry, I hope for the greatness of the usa that we get our head out of our butt and learn how to be smart with money.
    Dec 02 00:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Uncle Ben Signals the End Game
    Here's a thought, think about what your dollar could buy in the late 1970's, not much. Even though interest was at an all time high. You must ask yourself what is better: having more dollars or having your dollars be worth more.
    Dec 01 22:56 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Uncle Ben Signals the End Game
    ok never, but, since the dollar was amputated from gold in 1971 I don't think the govt is worried about it. The gold standard is dead, but, the gold trade against the dollar is totally fine.
    Dec 01 22:53 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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