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Sirius XM: An Equity Adrift
The shorts and hedgies step on it and can't put it out; the NAB jumps up and down over and over, and yet it still glows.
Eventually they all leave thinking it will burn itself out.
Then the wind picks up just a bit, it dosn't rain for a few days and some leaves start to fall. The forest is dry.
You all know how the story ends, especially y'all from California.
Siri can ignite. No one has put it out yet. It ain't over till it's over and it only takes one small glowing ember to burn down an entire forest.
Is Sirius XM a Buy, Sell or Hold?
So they want to dilute any positives that are released.
Open Letter to Sirius XM Radio
Tell me the issue and volume.
Yeh, I thought so.
Open Letter to Sirius XM Radio
My confucius comment for you. Respect everyone - fear no one.
Open Letter to Sirius XM Radio
So crfceo and FNG take your plagerism shouts and stuff them in a sack.
I decided it needed more exposure and took the time to massage it a bit and post it here.
I've also sent this to Mel personally.
And as regards SL62's comments, the fact of the matter is, in order to entice people to want to refinance due convertibles, provide needed capital and go long the stock, SIRI needs a broad plan and they need to state what it is. They need to do this for the benefit of their current shareholders, the market and potential future consumers.
I'm not sure they have such a broad vision and can actually see the forest through the trees. In fact, they seem stuck on the minutia.
So again, Mel, what is YOUR vision? What is the future growth story?
I stand by what I have thought of and what I have printed.
'nuff said.
Jim Cramer's Unnecessary Beating Over Sirius
What happened to my comment? Don't make me post it again.
I see that you now can edit off the ones you really don't like.
EXCELLENT
Will you be getting a new haircut?
Ripped.
Sirius XM 2009 Debt Is a Non Issue for Investors
And don't forget because they only issue the difference in cash those converted shares are then used to cover what the finaciers borrowed and shorted in the arb play. So it also actually adds buying pressure for a time.
Sirius XM Radio: Good Quarter, Average Call
I would expect that Mel kept some stuff under his hat and close to the vest for a reason.
They do compete with many others in the audio listening and subscription space and I'm sure they want to keep some of their strategies for organic growth and potential partnerships very quiet as a competitive advantage right now.
Aslo, having just cleared the FCC for the merger, I don't think they want to stretch their reach publically right now, though rest assured much is happening behind the scenes.
Satellite Radio: Wall Street Isn't Seeing the Full Picture
Organic potential for Sat Rad includes not only immediate synergies and doubling of the subscribers via one entity, but also the following growth strategies extending across multiple verticals.
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
9)
Also look for Sirius.TV which will be a show created for cable that covers Sirius, what it is up to and include special features.
Satellite Radio Investing Made Simple
Each year, just based on the OEM auto channel alone they'll add about 2 million subs a year each paying roughly $120. That's an additional 1/4 billion of growth per year.
Right now, based on the current 18,000,000 subs they bring in over 2 billion a year and this doesn't factor in any of the growth from the following:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
IT IS A CASH COW THAT IS ABOUT TO CUT IT'S OPERATING EXPENSE BY JUST UNDER 1/3. IT HAS HUGE AVENUES FOR GROWTH BEYOND THE ALMOST GUARANTEED 10% / YEAR. EACH SUBSCRIBER FLOWS ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE BOTTOM LINE GIVEN THE NOMINAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HOOKING THEM UP AND DISTRIBUTING THE NETWORK TO A NEW CLIENT. THIS INCREMENTAL REVENUE WILL JUST PILE UP.
IF THERE IS ONE GROWTH STORY LEFT YOU ARE STARING IT RIGHT IN THE FACE! AN ABSOLUTE 10 BAGGER. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYBODY CURRENTLY DOUBTS IT.
A Satellite Radio Giant's Surprising Small Audience
"Professional portfolio managers won't touch this stock with other peoples' money. Why in the world would you buy it with your own hard-earned dollars?"
And we all know how well all those professional money managers do.
Watch them drive another hedge fund into bankcruptcy.
Yeh they know what side is up.
I make a living taking the other side of their sad trades.
With all their kings horses and all their kings men, oh vicar of viceroy, they can't even beat one man with one computer and a copy of barrons.
Let me post this again for you:
There's only one subscription media service with more than 18 million people today and that's comcast (from Mel's lips). There is only one radio company with more combined listeners today and that would be clear channel
Each year, just based on the OEM auto channel alone they'll add about 2 million subs each paying roughly $120. That's an additional 1/4 billion of growth per year.
Right now, based on the current 18,000,000 subs they bring in over 2 billion a year and this doesn't factor in any of the growth from the following:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
IT IS A CASH COW THAT IS ABOUT TO CUT IT'S OPERATING EXPENSE BY JUST UNDER 1/3. IT HAS HUGE AVENUES FOR GROWTH BEYOND THE ALMOST GUARANTEED 10% / YEAR. EACH SUBSCRIBER FLOWS ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE BOTTOM LINE GIVEN THE NOMINAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HOOKING THEM UP AND DISTRIBUTING THE NETWORK TO A NEW CLIENT. THIS INCREMENTAL REVENUE WILL JUST PILE UP.
IF THERE IS ONE GROWTH STORY LEFT YOU ARE STARING IT RIGHT IN THE FACE! AN ABSOLUTE 10 BAGGER. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYBODY CURRENTLY DOUBTS IT.
Sirius XM's Long Road
Two, Right now the combined company brings in 2 billion a year.
They add a minimum 1/4 billion each year at the current OEM penetration rate. They just cut their operating costs by just under 1/3.
At the current market cap they are trading at less than 1 time revenue.
And many of you make it sound like they have to pay the entire debt outstanding in one fell swoop or by next year or something.
All they have to do is control debt service which is not a problem even at the current run rate.
Now I want you to consider all of these additional facts:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
If only half of these materialize it's still a monster future.
NO BRAINER!
'nough said.
Sirius XM's Long Road
So why would I opt for internet radio in the car. Any decent content would have to be subscriber based, or heavily advertiser sponsored.
So where is the real competition from that? Everybody prints this like they think internet radio is going to be able to offer everything and anything and they can do it for free.
Will never happen. So what's their competitve business model?
And it's guaranteed to cut in and out in temrs of reception. Internet nationwide mobile is 4 solid years away.
So put this away Gino.
Sirius, XM Complete Merger; Investors Still Blue
Here's some additional points.
According to Mel on CNBC this morning there's only one subscription service with more than 18 million people today and that's comcast. He also said there is only one radio company with more listeners today and that would be clear channel
Each year, just based on the OEM auto channel alone they'll add about 2 million subs a year each paying roughly $120. That's an additional 1/4 billion of growth per year.
Right now, based on the current 18,000,000 subs they bring in over 2 billion a year and this doesn't factor in any of the growth from the following:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
IT IS A CASH COW THAT IS ABOUT TO CUT IT'S OPERATING EXPENSE BY JUST UNDER 1/3. IT HAS HUGE AVENUES FOR GROWTH BEYOND THE ALMOST GUARANTEED 10% / YEAR. EACH SUBSCRIBER FLOWS ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE BOTTOM LINE GIVEN THE NOMINAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HOOKING THEM UP AND DISTRIBUTING THE NETWORK TO A NEW CLIENT. THIS INCREMENTAL REVENUE WILL JUST PILE UP.
IF THERE IS ONE GROWTH STORY LEFT YOU ARE STARING IT RIGHT IN THE FACE! AN ABSOLUTE 10 BAGGER. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYBODY CURRENTLY DOUBTS IT.
END OF STORY.
A Satellite Radio Giant's Surprising Small Audience
According to Mel on CNBC this morning there's only one subscription service with more than 18 million people today and that's comcast. He also said there is only one radio company with more listeners today and that would be clear channel
Each year, just based on the OEM auto channel alone they'll add about 2 million subs a year each paying roughly $120. That's an additional 1/4 billion of growth per year.
Right now, based on the current 18,000,000 subs they bring in over 2 billion a year and this doesn't factor in any of the growth from the following:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
IT IS A CASH COW THAT IS ABOUT TO CUT IT'S OPERATING EXPENSE BY JUST UNDER 1/3. IT HAS HUGE AVENUES FOR GROWTH BEYOND THE ALMOST GUARANTEED 10% / YEAR. EACH SUBSCRIBER FLOWS ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE BOTTOM LINE GIVEN THE NOMINAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HOOKING THEM UP AND DISTRIBUTING THE NETWORK TO A NEW CLIENT. THIS INCREMENTAL REVENUE WILL JUST PILE UP.
IF THERE IS ONE GROWTH STORY LEFT YOU ARE STARING IT RIGHT IN THE FACE! AN ABSOLUTE 10 BAGGER. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYBODY CURRENTLY DOUBTS IT.
END OF STORY.