chistletoe

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  • Crudomania Is Over
    have you stopped buying gasoline?

    at what price will you stop buying it?

    that's the price we are going to have.

    soon ....
    Jan 06 09:00 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Retail Investor Oil Consensus for 2009
    fine.
    Just remember, most people's predictions turn out to be wrong, most of the time.
    Jan 06 07:37 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Reader's Comment: Oil Stocks vs. Oil Trading Strategy
    last summer,
    the oil stocks plodded along
    while the price of crude went ballistic.
    That might have been a red flag -- that we were nearing the near-term peak.

    For the last couple of weeks,
    the oil stocks have been making smart moves up,
    again, perhaps, leading the price of crude?

    Sooner or later, any "quant" method is going to get busted by the market.
    Hang loose!!!!
    Jan 05 08:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Fiat Money and a Profligate Congress: A Bad Combination
    The jist of this opinion piece is old, old news but its nice to see it begin to
    show up in mainstream outlets. A few comments from recent events:

    Iraq under Saddam Hussein made the first moves away from US currency as world currency. That was the deepest "real" reason they were invaded and occupied.
    China, in the past two years, has ramped down their accumulation of US currency and obligations. So has Japan. It should be obvious where the new borrowing is coming from even though you won't be able to read it anywhere for awhile longer.

    There is not enough gold in the whole planet to use it as world currency. For that to work, a single one-ounze gold coin would have to have the equivalent value of about one year of service from a typical middle-class worker. How do you make change?

    The most likely scenario I can see, going forward, is that crude oil becomes the new world currency. That still leaves the United States so deep in debt
    that it will never be able to pay. Voting out the scoundrels does not seem
    to work, they seem to be as inexhaustible as the paper coming out of the Bureau of Minting and Engraving. I fear armed insurrection.

    Interesting times ....
    Dec 12 09:20 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold Coins Are in Short Supply, So Why Doesn't Their Price Rise?
    You can still get gold coins on eBay.

    I have yet to see a good writer explore what will happen when the money supply goes down to zero. Would you care to give it a try?
    Nov 04 05:07 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Hurricane Damage Impacts Oil Price
    yes, demand is down.
    Its the latest repeat-ad-nauseum-and-... just in case someone was making too much noise eating potato chips and did not hear it, from our beloved media.

    When, oh when, will you also report that production is down? Not just because of two hurricanes, but permanently? Forever? And its still getting worse?

    Before the hurricanes, the USA production had declined another 2% for the year, or over 40% from its all time high.

    Meanwhile Pemex reports that their production has now slipped another notch, now under 50% from its high five years ago.
    Norway reports that its production has also slipped, to 60% of its all-time high several years ago.
    Nigeria you should know about already.

    And while everyone listens assiduously to every word coming out of the Saudi and other OPEC oil ministers' mouths, you seem to gently overlook what they are doing: actually reducing output and exports.

    Oil is never, never going to get cheaper.
    even in constant US dollars.
    And as usual, you are so busy cleaning up the last mess that
    you are not anticipating the next one, inevitable though it is ...
    Sep 28 14:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Price Speculation Truth Begins to Leak into Mainstream Media
    what a toilet full of pompous pontification.
    You might want to shut up for awhile and do some serious reading.
    Perhaps if you move to Nashville, where they are even now experiencing the beginnings of serious, prolonged gasoline shortages, you will
    have the time on your hands to do some real research.
    Sep 23 09:08 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Buried IAEA Report Could Give Oil a Big Boost
    "The IAEA and the US see Iran’s refusal to cooperate as a clear sign that the regime refuses to cooperate ..."

    um, gee, that's pretty astute ...
    Sep 17 14:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • I.O.U.S.A.: Documentary Worth a Peek
    You cannot debate "government spending is too high" versus "government spending is okay or too low" without discussing where the money is going. The priorities have been altered, gradually, hugely.
    In the fifties and sixties some 2/3 of non-entitlement spending went for building and repairing the infrastructure and caring for americans who could not care for themselves. Today, however, 2/3 of non-entitlement spending goes down the drain fighting losing wars, propping up petty dictators, rescuing investment houses which made very stupid bets, and harassing and spying on american citizens in the name of "security". Meanwhile the infrastructure is crumbling. We have become obsessed with money for its own sake, completely losing track of the fact that money is only paper and has no value at all, and we are either ignoring or systematically destroying all the things that do have real value, such as doing quality work for other people, doing service for other people, manufacturing beautiful and useful products, and so forth ...

    A few movies and diatribes notwithstanding, the personal and governmental debt situation in the USA has already passed the crisis stage and is now guaranteed to bring down the government, its only a matter of time, and not even a lot of that ... some real pain is coming down the tracks, and a few people are going to be spanked ...
    Aug 26 08:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ugly Thoughts for a Pre-PPI Monday
    Increasingly, people are getting more and more vocal about refusing to pay higher prices for gasoline. The only alternative is a concept
    we learned from nominally communist societies:
    price controls coupled with perennial shortages.
    That's next.
    Aug 18 14:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Crude Oil: How Far Will It Fall?
    all these people who rely on those graphs and lines and jiggles and stuff,
    kinda remind me of the gypsies who used to tell your fortune
    by looking at tea leaves or the lines on your hand.

    Party is over. Oil is selling at the lowest point you will ever see again, and the DOW is at the highest point you will ever see again.
    Its fundamental, my dear Watson ....
    Aug 07 06:33 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Oil Price Slide - Think Long-Term
    All that happened was,
    one or two hedge funds with huge short positions on oil,
    got margin calls and had to dump their shares.

    We are back to business as usual now,
    falling financials,
    falling market,
    rising oil.
    Keep an eye on US treasury notes.
    Traditionally they have been touted as a safe haven
    but some people are now saying they should be relabeled
    as junk bonds ....
    Jul 29 05:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Short Oil as a Long Investment
    have yo ever heard it said that
    sometimes its a better idea to keep your mouth shut
    and let people think yo are a fool
    than to open it
    and let them know for sure?
    Jul 21 05:16 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing
    oh fun.
    yngalpacinolookslikeme -- yes there are a lot of poor people in china.
    Do you know that there are also many more college graduates, high school graduates, and people who speak and write English than there are in the USA? No, maybe not, because you didn't, didn't, and don't.

    Feverblister --
    you are half right ... gasoliine is in the upper half of the range.
    Here's the EIA monthly and yearly figures for crude:
    tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...
    Note that the last time inventories were this low was in Dec, 2004.
    Note that the US population has increased by 15% since then ...
    probably though, mostly by people like yngalpacinolookslikeme
    who don't have indoor plumbing, let alone a car ...
    Your opinion about inventories being inversely proportional to demand is interesting ... it seems to me that hoarding may be
    a factor also and that anyway, the total amount of crude oil and
    gasoline in the report, excluding the SPR, is scarcely a one-month supply fur current US usage so it's not really all that significant a factor in the price of crude anyway ...its probably nearly all necessary to keep the supply chain running between the tankers and the refineries and the filling stations ....
    As for inflation ... which is far above what the DOL figures claim
    and can only continue to increase as the Federal Reserve has to print more and more money to lend to itself, as more and more foreign entities stop loaning money to the USA ...
    yes, the imminent collapse of the US government might have an interesting effect on exploration and net demand ... what do you think will happen?
    Jul 18 14:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing
    obviously you have a lot of people who agree with you.

    The price of oil "falls" to $130 a barrel, and doomsayers come out of the woodwork.

    The key here is your statement "gasoline shortages don't exist and new oil is plentiful" ...you have no facts to back this up, only your own beliefs ... inventories are at a five year low ... the amount of finished gasoline in the system is so low that spot shortages are very, very likely to begin occurring later on this year ... exploration and new drilling and other capital investments are at an all-time high, yet the new oil coming on line is not anywhere close to replacing the decline of the huge old discoveries such as Cantarell and Ghawar ... the fact is that worldwide, total oil production has gone into a sharp decline since 2005 ... yes, the "high" prices now have contributed to some demand destruction, especially in the USA ... but the supply is dwindling still faster than demand ... yes, we have a correction to $130 from $145 .... but the trend is still in place, and if you are still short, then you deserve very bit of what happens to you going forward ....
    Jul 18 09:36 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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