chistletoe

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  • Crudomania Is Over
    have you stopped buying gasoline?

    at what price will you stop buying it?

    that's the price we are going to have.

    soon ....
    Jan 06 09:00 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Retail Investor Oil Consensus for 2009
    fine.
    Just remember, most people's predictions turn out to be wrong, most of the time.
    Jan 06 07:37 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Hurricane Damage Impacts Oil Price
    yes, demand is down.
    Its the latest repeat-ad-nauseum-and-... just in case someone was making too much noise eating potato chips and did not hear it, from our beloved media.

    When, oh when, will you also report that production is down? Not just because of two hurricanes, but permanently? Forever? And its still getting worse?

    Before the hurricanes, the USA production had declined another 2% for the year, or over 40% from its all time high.

    Meanwhile Pemex reports that their production has now slipped another notch, now under 50% from its high five years ago.
    Norway reports that its production has also slipped, to 60% of its all-time high several years ago.
    Nigeria you should know about already.

    And while everyone listens assiduously to every word coming out of the Saudi and other OPEC oil ministers' mouths, you seem to gently overlook what they are doing: actually reducing output and exports.

    Oil is never, never going to get cheaper.
    even in constant US dollars.
    And as usual, you are so busy cleaning up the last mess that
    you are not anticipating the next one, inevitable though it is ...
    Sep 28 14:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Buried IAEA Report Could Give Oil a Big Boost
    "The IAEA and the US see Iran’s refusal to cooperate as a clear sign that the regime refuses to cooperate ..."

    um, gee, that's pretty astute ...
    Sep 17 14:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • I.O.U.S.A.: Documentary Worth a Peek
    You cannot debate "government spending is too high" versus "government spending is okay or too low" without discussing where the money is going. The priorities have been altered, gradually, hugely.
    In the fifties and sixties some 2/3 of non-entitlement spending went for building and repairing the infrastructure and caring for americans who could not care for themselves. Today, however, 2/3 of non-entitlement spending goes down the drain fighting losing wars, propping up petty dictators, rescuing investment houses which made very stupid bets, and harassing and spying on american citizens in the name of "security". Meanwhile the infrastructure is crumbling. We have become obsessed with money for its own sake, completely losing track of the fact that money is only paper and has no value at all, and we are either ignoring or systematically destroying all the things that do have real value, such as doing quality work for other people, doing service for other people, manufacturing beautiful and useful products, and so forth ...

    A few movies and diatribes notwithstanding, the personal and governmental debt situation in the USA has already passed the crisis stage and is now guaranteed to bring down the government, its only a matter of time, and not even a lot of that ... some real pain is coming down the tracks, and a few people are going to be spanked ...
    Aug 26 08:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ugly Thoughts for a Pre-PPI Monday
    Increasingly, people are getting more and more vocal about refusing to pay higher prices for gasoline. The only alternative is a concept
    we learned from nominally communist societies:
    price controls coupled with perennial shortages.
    That's next.
    Aug 18 14:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why $140/Barrel Crude is Unsustainable
    Gasoline is still selling in my neighborhood for 70 cent per pint.
    The same store sells bottled tap water for $1.25, sugar-water for $1.40, milk for $1.40, and Nyquil for $8.00.
    Seems to me, gas is still very cheap.

    In 1973, Saudi Arabia had a huge spare capacity to flood the market with oil below the cost of most other producers, if they chose to do so. They claim that they still do, yet they keep their current production and reserve information tightly secret and their production has been slowly decreasing (especially in terms of quality, less so for quantity) in the last few years.
    What if they don't? How much do you think people in productive economies (China, India, etc) might be willing to pay?
    Remember, 1 gallon of gas produces about 20,000 watts of energy, while an average man's labor produces about 100 watts/hr.
    Jul 09 07:55 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bye, Bye Oil Bubble?
    Thank you for using the word "hoarders".

    As for ridiculous prices, well, the price of gasoline is still about half of the price of bottled tap water at my local gas station.
    But don't worry, realistic prices will be here soon!
    Jun 23 13:07 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak
    Barrons' running an article about the imminent decline of the price of oil -- that's one of those news items worthy of comment. Like Lucy offering to hold the football for Charlie Brown at the beginning of the season. It seems to happen every month. and the results are the same, every month.

    If the media and the politicians would start using the correct word,
    "hoarders", instead of the misnomer, "speculators"... then a much more understandable view of the situation might have a chance to emerge. While the full statistics are not generally available,
    the numbers strongly suggest that a huge amount of money has been and still is invested by commercial ventures, investment houses and the like, on the SHORT side of oil, and if Congress passes new laws to further restrict investments, the net effect will be a rush to close those positions by BUYING more oil and the price will shoot up instead of down. In general, price controls on a free market always have destructive results and this situation will be no different.

    As a little guy living in a small house in a blue collar town and hardly ever driving myself, I will continue to invest my retirement nestegg in oil instead of what the financial houses keep recommending and preaching to me. I sure have done okay with it this past decade.
    Jun 22 11:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How Much Will Drilling in ANWR Affect Oil Prices?
    One observes that the most astonishing recent discovery of oil in the USA is happening on land ... in Montana and North Dakota.
    One also observes that the oil majors, Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, etc.
    are conspicuously absent from the area, preferring to sit back, watch the wildcatters, and
    use their profits to pay enormous benefits to their management and
    the rest to buy back stock from their stockholders.
    One hears that Cuba is aggressively drilling in the water and,
    with no easy means to check it out, one also hears that there may be more oil under Miami Beach and Key West than in the ANWR, but their don't happen to be a lot of multimillion dollar beach homes owned by people who give enormous amounts to the republican party, in the ANWR.
    One just doesn't have the means to check out this kind of talk,
    but after everything else we've seen happen recently, it would
    be consistent, wouldn't it ...
    Jun 19 05:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I
    Congress, of course, had nothing to do with the terribly shortsighted and ignorant decision to convert corn into fuel on a massive basis, or the decision 20 years to make heavy excise taxes on automobiles but exempt SUV's, or the many decisions to tear down railroads and build highways, or to continue to fund the fiasco in Iraq ...
    Jun 17 08:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 10 Notes on the Crude Oil Fixation
    note -- oil from the Bakken Play and some other unconventional sources happens to be sweet and light -- its just a lot more difficult to get it out.

    Methinks that all the stuff about "speculators"... in the media is coming from the human nature to want to blame someone else (anyone else) before having to alter one's own behavior. However, a pretty good case can be made that more and more people are "hoarding",
    and it might be good to start using that word instead.
    Jun 16 10:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why the Discrepancy Between Oil and Gold?
    All the goldbugs notwithstanding, most of the new gold mined in the world ends up as jewelry, not coin or bullion. Oil, on the other hand, can be used to do work and create value. Just for example, oil and gas availability have enormously increased crop yields which, as Midas discovered to his chagrin, no amount of gold could ever do. So while there is a growing shortage for both, people who only have money to invest in one and not the other tend to choose investing in oil.
    Jun 10 08:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil's Bull Now Double the Average in Gains and Length
    Three eternal truths:

    I will respect you in the morning.

    The check is in the mail.

    Oil will pull back soon.
    Apr 29 07:35 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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