redbaron

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  • Natural Gas Bargain Justifies Obama's Stance
    T. Boone still owns 34 million shares of CLNE, at the last count I saw, and is still the largest stockholder. So what, if he sells a few shares. He has strong beliefs about peak oil, and he is putting his money where his mouth is. His plan may not be perfect, but he is way ahead of whoever is in second place.
    Sep 22 08:54 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • T. Boone Pickens' Stocks Struggle
    Ah Yes, and how would that compare to those only holding financial stocks in a fund, or only china stocks in a fund, in the same time period.

    Why pick only on T. Boone? There are others who are far worse off, and some of them are the financial geniuses who created much of this mess.
    Sep 11 14:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Whither Oil Prices?
    If I were a major oil executive, my thinking would be more inclined to increase my reserves by buying independent producers, rather than spending $100 a barrel exploring and drilling in deep water Gulf of Mexico, or other expensive locations. Energy analyst Kurt Wulff values Anadarkos reserves, given it's recent stock price at $25.32 boe (on 8/5/08), and the stock price has since decreased further. Other independents are valued similarly. A major can pay a signicant premium, and still buy the reserves much cheaper than they can Drill, Drill, Drill.

    With that given, why not be buying APC, or other independents like OXY, DVN, XTO, instead of CVX? I don't have a clue when some of these independents might be bought up by the majors, but it looks to me like it is just a matter of time, if the valuations remain close to where they are.
    Sep 07 22:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Whither Oil Prices?
    Given the facts presented by the author here, it is quite apparent that those that advocate for 'Drill, Drill, Drill', and 'Drill on the US Continental Shelf', i.e., deep water, etc, will have those companies doing so operating at a loss, if oil does actually go to $70.

    If these numbers are correct, and the cost of finding oil in deep water is growing at about 10% per year, then the current 2008 cost of finding oil is approaching $76-78, give or take a few dollars (2006 cost was $63.71).

    Since looking for oil off the continental US, has not yet been adopted here in the US as an energy policy, and further, given the delay in actual production of perhaps 5-10 years, one can see that for any company to decide to spend billions in off-shore exploration and production now, they must project oil to be at least in the $100 range for the forseeable future.

    One can readily see why there might be some reluctance by the oil majors to spend billions, given the authors data and facts presented here. Oil must stay in the $100 range, or Drill, Drill Drill, will not work out profiitably. And if there is no money to be made in Drill, Drill, Drill, who in the right mind will be doing it?

    The author is absolutely correct on the premise that no one knows where the price of oil is going, but I prefer to think that it has to stay a little higher than what is commonly projected, or there will be no incentive for anyone to actually Drill, Drill Drill.

    Just, IMHO.
    Sep 07 08:36 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors
    Well said, Fitzman.
    Aug 06 07:51 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Barron's Banks on $100 Oil
    That link must be too long to copy............go to thestreet.com to see his interview............h... titled it, 'Calling out the oil lies'.
    Jun 22 19:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Barron's Banks on $100 Oil
    www.thestreet.com/_yah...
    Jun 22 19:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Barron's Banks on $100 Oil
    Cramer had some thoughts on this that I agree with. Here is a link to his video comments in an interview on TheStreet.com:

    www.thestreet.com/_yah...

    His logic says that gasoline consumption has dropped by 1%, while the price of crude has doubled. Wow! That is really some demand destruction.......or words to that effect. A whole 1%, which is essentially nothing. A whole lot of folks are trying to talk the price of oil down, but I think it is just that....talk. In the meantime, new sources are not coming on-line as fast as old sources are drying up. IMHO






    Jun 22 19:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
    Finding oil, is different from producing oil. Newly discovered fields will be decades in defining, exploring, and fully developing into producing fields. During that time frame, existing producing fields will continue to decline, and it will be many years before we know the final outcome in terms of actual total daily production of oil in millions of barrels per day. These new fields may be the answer to our problems, or they may not, for many different reasons. The oil estimates may be incorrect. Or it may be too difficult, expensive, or isolated to produce. Or for political reasons, the permits not available...........or many other reasons. Ten years from now we will know how significant these new finds proved to be. To proclaim that our energy problems are now behind us from the list of facts above, is naive, and much too simplistic. It just doesn't work that way.
    Jun 22 09:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Windfall Profits for Big Food: Where's The Outrage?
    make that..........'when we are going to need all the big-oil supplies'.......note to self.....'proof read before posting'.

    Jun 02 08:45 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Windfall Profits for Big Food: Where's The Outrage?
    Great article, and spot-on exactly correct. Our energy future is going to expand beyond oil and natural gas, but not in time to do anything meaningful about near-term future consumption of those products. Why beat up on 'big-oil' so severely, when we are going to near all the 'big-oil' supplies we can muster up. And at the same time, ignore 'big-Ag'.
    Jun 02 08:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
    'Are You Diversified?' is a fools game, in this current investment enviornment, as Fitz correctly points out (IMHO). I have laughed at Cramer each night, as he plays this little game, and can say without reservation that those who have followed his diversification game, have not done nearly as well for the past 3 years, as my non-diversified grouping of energy stocks and funds. The question now, however, is 'what happens next'........and the answer to that is not nearly so clear. If the last energy crisis is any guide, energy stocks continued to go up, after everything else turned down, with oil stocks up 60%+ in 1980 alone. Kurt Wulff (superb Oil Analyst, IMHO, mcdep.com), sees some similarities between our current situation and 1980 (election year, energy shortage recognized, high energy prices affecting the economy, etc.), and is still very bullish on oil and energy stocks. I follow Kurt closely, and continue to follow his advice. I recommend him highly. He posts here from time to time, but his advice is free on a time delayed basis at mcdep.com.
    May 30 10:04 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Manipulations Exposed
    I agree with the Fitzman, and would add a 6th factor, Where (or 'What') are the reserves, i.e., who has the reserves and how much are they.

    American's continue to look at the oil market using only their own factors and considerations, while the energy market is a global market. They just don't see the whole picture.

    Speculation is part of any market that is this hot. It was part of the housing market, it was part of the Nasdaq bubble in 2000, and it is part of this energy market today. Oil has one difference, however, as it has a limited and finite supply that is not renewable. We are not going to solve this problem by building another something, or coming up with a new software program.
    May 27 09:58 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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