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  • The Problem of Regaining Trust
    All this talk about trust. But you have to remember a couple of things:

    1) People WANT to believe.
    2) Most people would NOT trust the system if they were told the whole, unadultered truth about the financial system. And I am even talking about the sophisticated, high net worth individuals. They would not trust in part because they would not understand, in part because it is so very complicated for an "average" person to comprehend anyway, and in part because the whole economy is The Ponzi Scheme, based on belief in eternal growth, something most people realize is not physically possible.

    Therefore, we have illusions created for us and served us. IMO the bailouts are one such illusion. They are virtual bailouts. It's not like they printed money and threw it out of the helicopters.

    Curbs-in, you don't have your trust back, but I know a lot of people who do. And looking at how the Dow is creeping back up, it seems like the believers are a majority.

    Is it that easy? You say you will give seventeen gazillion dollars to anybody who asks. Then you "do," but they do nothing (visible) with the money and/or won't report what they did with it. And the Government is fine with that.

    It sounds too crazy, but it's working. It's working because people WANT to believe. And frankly... I am glad for it. I could stand here and say The Emperor Has No Clothes. But why? I don't want the end of the world. So I cheer on.
    Jan 07 01:32 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Crippled by 'catatonic fear,' banks are sitting on TARP funds instead of using them, leaving taxpayers to support an industry that won't lend to them.
    They should add something like this to the TARP: "Banks will provide a monthly report on use of the TARP funds. Committed but not used TARP funds will accrue interest at 5% per day." Then have them sit on the money. It's still not too late. And I'd even make it retroactive. Have the banks sue the Government for it being unconstitutional.

    Spoiled brats, they should have let them all fail. Or at least done a straight nationalization. "The CEO will report to the Secretary of the Treasury."
    Jan 05 12:08 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • 2009: Expecting a Massive Rally
    "Me too" believe that we are looking at revisiting the 7500 bottom and are also looking at a few sucker rallies in 2009.

    I am a little disappointed in Roger's analysis here. I think Roger was one of the few people to really call "the end of the world" in late 2007, while others were seeing "a correction" at best. (We won't talk about the Steins of the world, they got what they deserved) But, Roger, going after fundamentals in this market.... is it the way to go? Question: What goes up in sucker rallies?

    I'll just propose something else too. Back in September, October and November there was A LOT OF PEOPLE calling the bottom in the comments here on SA. Now, almost no one is. Everybody is talking about more downside and sucker rallies. Is this a good sign?
    Dec 29 20:39 pm |Rating: +5 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Financial Meltdown: Good Luck, Bad Luck, Who Knows?
    Since we are getting all philosophical here, let me just say:

    Black Swans are in the eyes of the beholder. There are no swans....
    Dec 29 20:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • While Americans pare back on consumerism and - gasp - increase their savings, China struggles with the opposite phenomenon: thriftiness and over-saving.
    .... and so Chinese and American economies are perfect complements.

    That relationship needs to be fostered, and mutual needs met half way. As in: US is becoming more socialist by day, while China is becoming more capitalist by night.

    Which would leave just the political systems wide apart. As in: China has a two-wing (liberal and conservative) one party party system (and one country two systems), while the US has a one wing two party system.
    Dec 26 11:00 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • ProShares Short ETF Short-Term Capital Gains Distributions
    I also nearly got a heart attack when I saw the price drop 25% on REW before I was able to figure out what happened.

    I checked the chart but didn't see a major drop in the price last year around this time.

    It's crazy people will have to pay capital gains in this market, instead of getting tax breaks for losses.

    I am not sure about not holding them overnight, but I sure as hell am gonna be out of all ProShares cum next December. Of course, they could also do it at any time of the year ("once per year"), but, as our current President said... fool me twice.... can't get fooled again.
    Dec 24 00:25 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bill Miller - the Legg Mason (LM) money manager whose two funds have each lost more than 50% this year - has been asked to help run a third fund as the firm tries to halt record outflows. WTF?
    Let's just make sure the automaker salaries go down to Japanese levels.
    Dec 23 12:44 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • Does the Santa Claus Rally Exist?
    .... and this year is just an average old year.

    Kids, kids, kids. Haven't we said that this year all the tricks are out the window?
    Dec 23 12:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Banks with federal bailout funds won't say how they're spending the money, or why they're being so vague. One bank's response: "We've lent some of it. We've not lent some of it. We've not given any accounting of 'Here's how we're doing it.'" Reassured?
    Hey, hey. Let's make sure the auto-maker salaries go down to Japanese levels, ok?! What's this talk about Wall St. bailout? Didn't rich people lose enough with Madoff? What else do you want?
    Dec 22 11:52 am |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • The Yen Is on Fire, Gold and Silver Continue Their Breakout
    You think Mexican illegals are riding the gravy train? I dare you to "sneak back in as an illegal," and see what that life is like.

    You are full of it.....
    Dec 20 11:13 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • An auto industry bailout, even if it only offers temporary belief, is still worthwhile, University of Chicago law professor Richard Posner says: "The realistic goal of an auto-industry bailout is not to reform, revitalize, or restructure the domestic industry; it is merely to postpone its bankruptcy for a year or two, until the end of the depression is at least in sight and consumer confidence is restored."
    Yes, the auto bailout would certainly offer a temporary "belief" (SA typo). Unfortunately that's all it will offer, just a belief.
    Dec 16 02:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • Are Index Funds the Only Rational Choice?
    I think the reason why most people buy index funds is so they don't have to spend the time learning and analyzing the fundamentals, and watching the market to make sure they made the right choices.

    They'd rather be fishing.

    And I think that's perfectly fine.

    Stock picking is for the little guy, and for the professionals.
    Dec 15 19:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • To Understand Inflation, Follow the Money
    Good article, until the last sentence:

    > While this prediction, if true, would bring welcome relief in terms of
    > prices, it is a rather dire prediction in that our economy relies on cheap
    > money for its growth.

    ... which pretty much negates your entire story. Our economy does indeed rely on cheap money for its growth. Herro? Where have you been for the past 200 years?

    But the perceived value of money is not just determined by the amount of it. It is also "the trust" that people put into it.

    US has this enormous leverage, because the rest of the world considers USD a "reserve currency." As good as gold. It took a long time to build that reputation.

    However, that trust is lost more easily than some people believe. And once it is lost, it takes forever and a day to regain the trust, if possible at all. Sort of like a priest who gets caught with his pants down in a room with a teenager.
    Dec 15 19:16 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ponzi vs. Ponzi?
    I think of all the people who get picked on the most undeservedly is Mr. Ponzi himself.

    Had Mr. Ponzi lived in our time, he would have been the Chairman of Nasdaq or at least the CEO of Lehman.

    At least Mr. Ponzi will remain remembered in history, while Mr. Madoff, and what's the name of that wanker CEO of Lehman?
    Dec 15 06:02 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Tech Troubles Aren't Over - Barron's
    The flood is yet to hit tech. Everybody's been focusing on financials (subprime exposure), auto companies (price of oil, cash flow), and retailers (consumer, layoffs).

    But if you talk to people in tech, you will see that the flood has reached their doors, and the first thing corporations are cutting, in huge numbers, is tech. Especially these days when people are making 09 budgets.

    It's gonna be another tech slaughter in 09, but this time there was no real bubble, and tech will just be collateral damage.

    See in you Web 3.0.
    Dec 14 18:10 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article

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