Will McCain's Vice Presidential Selection Help the Markets?

by: Scott Rothbort August 27, 2008 | about stocks: DIA / QQQQ / SPY    
Scott Rothbort

Scott Rothbort

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The McCain Veep choice is going to get plenty of attention in the next few days. The selection is also a possible market mover in the future.

I think that we could see a woman. Kay Bailey Hutchison is a possibility but McCain does not need Texas, he already has it. Yet don’t rule her out. I think that Carly Fiorina formerly of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) or Meg Whitman of Ebay (EBAY) fame both have a shot but it is more likely that their lack of political experience leaves them as possible cabinet appointments should the GOP win.  Wall Street would like that, especially in techland.

Minnesota is a state that the GOP would like to take along with its 10 electoral votes. That makes Tim Pawlenty a possibility. Charlie Christ, Governor of Florida is a rumored selection but it already appears that McCain will win Florida so that might be a waste. However, a possible long shot could be with Lincoln or Mario Diaz-Balart. Both are Hispanic and young. That is a “two-for” for McCain. However, Lincoln was born in Cuba thus Mario who was born in the US would be the more optimal choice. I think that the juicy take is in Pennsylvania where Tom Ridge could deliver the state. The talking heads on television seem to think that the pro-life Mitt Romney will be picked to appease the religious right.

One thing that is certain is that McCain won’t upset the Hillary supporters with his pick. I think he has a nice opportunity to get a post-convention bounce with the right pick. A woman or Hispanic would do just the trick.

As for the market reaction, I believe that the S&P 500 (SPX) has already lost about 100 index points just on Obama’s clinching of the Democratic nomination back in late May. A GOP rise in the polls could help support the SPX and a GOP victory in November will put a big bid into stocks. A strategic vice presidential running mate could make the difference to the markets.

Disclosure: None

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This article has 11 comments:

  •  
    Aug 27 02:13 PM
    Sure it will affect the market, for at least 11 minutes; then something else will.
    Why would it matter who is McCain's running mate? About the only thing Romney can do is increase demand for nausea pills; Pawlenty, on the other hand, could create acute shortages in No-Doz.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 02:28 PM
    Like the GOP has been great for the economy the last 8 years....

    bigpicture.typepad.com...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 02:32 PM
    Condolezza Rice
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 03:08 PM
    I don't think it was really meant to be a legitimate topic for discussion.... just a shallow attempt to promote his political views.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 03:15 PM
    js_mcknz has it right on the nose. How about the trillion debt the current idiots have added on our country. Some people have a short memory- Clinton left office with a surplus- and Rothbort is suggesting that McCain would "Help" the market? How myopic can we as a nation be?
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 03:28 PM
    It's not logical, as Bingo 2 points out, but this type of fear mongering "the Dow is down 100 points because of the prospect of Obama in office" often works for the Republicans.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 04:42 PM
    With 75.5% believing the country is headed on the wrong direction why would anyone want another Republican with the same plan?
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 28 09:57 AM
    What BS. As someone said, just someone boosting his ego and seing his name in print.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 28 11:45 AM
    What would be valuable, assuming Romney's selection, would be a look at the role that he will play in economic policy, and the shorter term political implications of that. Between McCain, Obama, and Biden there is no business experience (except for a distant view of Cindy's beer distributorship, which might at least affect attitudes). On the other hand, Romney should have some credibility if he says "here are the five things that we need to do", and if it isn't just pandering. There are a number of structural changes needed, and it would be good to have somebody capable of speaking clearly about them - beyond just tax rates.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 28 12:42 PM
    RightinSanFrancisco

    Glad to see someone seriously considered the post.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 28 09:20 PM
    " However, Lincoln was born in Cuba thus Mario who was born in the US would be the more optimal choice. "

    It doesn't have any optimal choice -- Lincoln would not be eligible to become president because he is not a native born.

    With all of the names mentioned in the article, one is lead to believe that Rothbort is just trying to say that he picked McCain's VP choice.

    Not much credibility here.
    Reply | Link to Comment
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