The Dead Cat Returns to Earth

by: Graham Summers July 25, 2008 | about stocks: DIA / QQQQ / SPY    

Graham Summers

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What’s not good about 400 points on the Dow?

I’m usually not one for much financial TV, but occasionally CNBC delivers a real treat. For me, one of the most powerful moments in recent memory occurred a mere four months ago when Maria Bartiromo interviewed Jim Rogers on March 12, 2008.

At the time, the Federal Reserve had just pumped $230 billion into the financial system. The market, already oversold, went bananas with the Dow rallying 400 points in a single day—one of the largest single day moves in history. The talking heads—of whom Bartiromo is one of the most famous—were euphoric, praising the Fed’s ingenuity, as though pumping billions into the market required some kind of special insight.

Rogers, a self-made multimillionaire investor and former partner of George Soros, is one of the more outspoken critics of Fed policy. The March 12, 2008 interview was no different. Within 30 seconds, he had commented that “Bernanke just goes from bad to worse.” Bartiromo, shocked that anyone could see a rally in the market—even one that fed inflation, hurt taxpayers, and was aimed solely at aiding Bernanke’s buddies on Wall Street—as bad, retorted with the above quote.

For me, this moment captured all the hallmarks of financial TV, or Bubblevision, as some of my friends call it. On one side you had an attractive market commentator who knows nothing about the market or investing questioning with incredulity one of the greatest investors of the last 100 years—a man who made so much money from his investments that he retired rich at age 37—as to why a large jump in the Dow was bad.

In that instant, all the shortcomings of financial TV—the emphasis on appearance, lack of financial insight, mindless optimism, etc.—were evident for the world to see. Rogers spent the next eight minutes laying out for Bartiromo and her colleagues in no uncertain terms why the Bernanke was an idiot and why the market would eventually collapse.

I’ve thought about that instant time and time again during the last four months. We’ve now seen two major market rallies kicked off by intervention. The first was the famous Bear Stearns deal. The second occurred last week when the SEC stepped in to squeeze short-sellers and bolster financial stocks.

Both rallies were driven by sentiment, not fundamentals, and both eventually faltered. However, everyone applauded both. It made me realize that 95% of investors are permabulls—folks with a positive bias who think stocks naturally go up and that any downward movement is merely a temporary correction or setback. Yesterday’s collapse hopefully slapped anyone with this line of thinking awake.

As you can see, the S&P 500 failed to break above its 28-day moving average (DMA). This does not bode well for stocks at all. If the recent rally were to be at all sustained, stocks should have broken above the 28-DMA and moved to challenge the 55-DMA. Instead, last week’s rally proved its true colors—a dead cat bounce—and quickly reversed.

I strongly suggest covering some of your long positions and moving the money into cash or establishing some shorts. Unless stocks can break above the 28-DMA, we’re in for more bad times. And the guys who bounced highest during the rally—financials—will fall hardest.

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This article has 32 comments:

  •  
    Jul 25 10:11 AM
    Agreed.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 10:27 AM
    x2. "Permabulls" are everywhere, however this aspiring investor doesn't understand. Personally, I feel that all this Fed-invisible-hand-man... towards nationalism is simply to get through the election, otherwise all of Congress would be tossed out on the capital lawn. It's certainly not for investors, or citizens -- which is terrible.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 10:40 AM
    Cramer thinks the housing rescue bill that just passed its last hurdle in the Senate may soon be approved. If this bill passes, he thinks it may well mark the bottom of the housing crisis. This crisis is in turn a large factor in the current market downturn. If housing start going up instead of going down, the market may turn on fundamentals. I guess the cat won't be quite as dead then. It is really hard to say what is going to happen now. There are a lot of mixed signals. This could be a legitimate rally from lows. Historically markets have rallied into presidential elections. It is not incomprehensible to think they may do so again. Hold on to your hats, the ride may be a rough one.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 10:48 AM
    x3...can i say the Socialist Republic of the United States....this crisis has been 7 years in the making, i doubt things will be A ok after 7 months...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 11:14 AM
    I consider it investor purgatory to have to watch that PIcasso painting Bartiromo hee haw her jackass laugh at me. None of those bimbos has ever traded a share, that much is known from their childish pabulum. Yet the market moving rumor mongering the bimbo network panders forces investors to tune in - so as not to be broadsided.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 11:40 AM
    lex, why is it that Americans like you always use the word "socialist or socialism" as a derogatory term. England is socialist and they are doing as well economically as the U.S. or better. Denmark, Sweden and Norway are esentially socialist democracies with meaningful social safety nets and they are doing fine. Yes they pay higher taxes but they don't have a significant portion of their population with no access to health care of any kind. I think you would have been more correct stating that "..can i say the fascist of the United States". A government by the Corporations for the Corporations!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 12:45 PM
    barnburner, bone up on your international politics. The U.K. is a "Constitutional Monarchy", also known as a "Parliamentary Democracy" General elections (by the people, for the people) are held to elect MPs (Members of Parliment). The party with the most MPs can elect a Prime Minister. So, your point is made moot.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 12:56 PM
    barnboob - from your comment you are suggesting that a significant portion of the U.S. population has no access to healthcare or is not covered.

    You are a perfect example of a leftie who has "no clue." First, your statement is false. The majority of U.S. citizens have healthcare. Second, the majority of those who are not covered CHOOSE not to be covered. This includes people ages 18 to 25, who willing take the risk of not paying for coverage. It also includes people who are between jobs, who again choose not to pay for healthcare given their expectation of gaining employment in the near future. I could go on and on.

    But the truth is there are very very few people in the U.S. who genuinely do not have access to healthcare...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 01:42 PM
    MikeB, are you kidding?

    According to the Census Bureau's 2005 Current Population Survey (CPS), there were 45.8 million uninsured individuals in 2004, or 15.7% of the civilian non-institutionalized population.

    aspe.hhs.gov/health/re...

    I guess to some 45.8 million people is very very few people in the U.S.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 05:22 PM
    Just on the OFF TOPIC: I would say most people have healthcare or just those folks that can't actually pay for it. Those ssame people that end up in the ER to have a band-aid taken off. (true story-my neighbor is a ER doc and couldn't beleive the person, almost threw them out the door) The people who actually pay for it get screwed.

    Back on TOpic: I can never tell what Cramer is actually talking about he's been wrong so many times about individuals stocks its hard to listen to him when it comes to politicial policy. This market I think will test lows again once oil goes up.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 06:45 PM
    David, housing's turn will be market by market - fundamentals are so far off the mark in so many real estate markets that years will pass before sanity is restored. There are other real estate markets that are in pretty good shape today, attracting real estate investors hungry for sane values. The housing rescue legislation has more probability of prolonging real estate's pain than precipitating it's turn. The legislation may impact sentiment in the short haul, but it's ability to change housing fundamentals looks anemic.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 06:56 PM
    Not only are there tens of millions of Americans with no medical insurance, tens of millions more are underinsured. One big medical expense and they are bankrupt. Wait until unemployment starts really working its way up. All those folks working for corporate America who thought they had good coverage will find that their security was paper-thin.

    Since the 1950s, the Republicans have been screaming "socialized medicine" at any attempt to rationalize our system. Look what a mess we have now. We spend twice as much per capita as any other country and have worse outcomes.

    The only people who have truly good medical insurance are those with enough money to not need any.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 07:59 PM
    It is one of the best signals on earth. When news is getting really bad it's time to cover shorts. when news is getting really good, it's time to take profits from longs. Propfessional traders know this, and use it because they need the liquidity to reverse their positions and the 'herd' always give them their needed liquidity
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 08:28 PM
    Until credit expands again, the Case-Shiller won't improve.
    Until the Case-Shiller improves, the consumer won't start spending again.
    Until the consumers start spending, the economy will be garbage.

    Until all of these things it's catching falling knives, dead-cat bounces and "bottoming activity", and the greedy getting skinned.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 25 11:33 PM
    Regarding Socialism: America is the only country where socialism is for the rich, not the poor.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 07:41 AM
    Most investors are bullish because the market is bullish over the long term (75% up and 25% down). Those investors like the author are losers.

    The market went down Thur. because it went up too fast. (frightened shorts wetting their pants) not because it hit the 28 day moving average (what ever that is). It should continue up but at a lower rate.

    As for G Soros and Rogers, neither are investors but gamblers who hit it big and quit. (that doesnt take much brains). Rogers is brought out every few weeks to give his dog and pony show which hasnt changed in 25 years (buy lead --buy lead).

    I listen to Bartiromo who is in the middle of the market while Rogers is 25 years out of date.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 08:12 AM
    "Historically markets have rallied into presidential elections."

    Oh really? Like the Nasdaq in 2000, falling from 5000 to 3000 during the Bush/Gore race, quite a "rally" !
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 09:04 AM
    The excellent S&P technical chart shown above would suggest weakness ahead rather than strength. Fundamentals [inflation, housing decline, unsolved banking problems etc] suggest risk of further weakness. I would trade [long or short depending on individual judgement] but keeping these downside risks in mind.

    I appreciate the observation by metalhead, a solid knowledge base helps in navigating/trading the markets.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 11:30 AM
    2 more regional banks(CA, NV) seized by the FDIC **AFTER ** Friday's close. A dead-cat bounce, exactly. This is a trader's market, even for the big boyz, like Jeff Saut said this morning on Bloomberg, scalp what you can, and don't worry about leaving 5-10% on the table if selling too soon. That's the worst kind of market for investors, their is no "longterm" plan for America (energy, domestic jobs, healthcare, you name it), it's Congressmen,(election cycle) or the CEOs (beat by a penny every 3 months).
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 12:16 PM
    Take the chart above into Elliott Wave analysis and see the first wave down from Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 is a 1-2-3-4-5 formation.

    Then look at the nice A-B-C wave up from May 2008 to July 2008.
    A new 1-2-3-4-5 down began in July 2008 and shoud last through Oct 2008 with a target of 1100.

    That would complete a larger scale A-B-C wave from Oct 2007 to Oct 2008.

    Then, what next?

    We guess that a recovery from OCT 2008 to March 2009 will be followed by another down leg to OCT 2009.

    See your investment advisor before making investmenet decisions.

    Good luck.

    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 01:41 PM
    99% of investors today have never seen anything but a general up market since the 30's. For the first 30+ years of that run, America and its corporations were running hard to build industries and people who knew how to build things, like steel, automobiles, airplanes, appliances, machine tools, computers, etc, and to export them to the rest of the world. We had a strong dollar and a growing, confident knowledge base.

    Since the late 60's what have we had? Social unrest, political scandal, a lost war in Vietnam, the rise of terrorism and intolerance around the globe. We became a nation of "servicers", pushing paper and real estate in the era of digitization and ease. Where a family of 4 could live comfortably in a 2,000 sq ft home, now childless couples demand 5,000 sq ft for their primary residence, three cars, boats, a "place at the beach" on and on ad nauseum.

    It was all built not on hard work and sacrifice, but on a mountain of credit at the personal and governmental level (FAN and FRED). Literally Trillions of dollars of paper that were sliced and diced and handed out all over the world to "reduce risk". Well, that debt requires something: cash flow and debt service. The holders of that debt want to be paid both interest and principal. They do not want the underlying homes that nobody can afford to pay for, insure, furnish, pay taxes on and commute 2 hrs per day at $4.00 a gallon in their Hummers and other SUV's.

    Just when housing had a chance to become affordable again due to 50% discounts, the Treasury steps in a says "no, we got to put a stop to that". Can't have the marketplace setting prices!

    We are in the process of turning the clock back to an earlier era. Not 1929, but 1974. That is the Dow at the 4th wave of lesser degree. Unbelieveable, but it will be DOW 400 by 2016.

    If not, give me your case for the DOW returning to new highs with the credit engine out of gas.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 01:52 PM
    Perfect. Yes, most of the finance "experts" on TV are ignoramuses posing as experts. The females are chosen because their looks not their brains as if looks could choose the right stocks. US TV has lost any informative value, other than displaying idiots to be avoided. All the brains have gone onto the internet. Looks don't count there. Nobody cares how brains "look".
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 02:59 PM
    at least put a blindfolded monkey on once a day to throw darts at a stockboard & lets see how this would work out. it might have to be checked out with the animal protection crowd,various unions,civil rights orgs.sponsors etc. it might be fun.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 03:29 PM
    Melissa Francis and Becky Quick are both quite sharp. I wouldn't call them bimbos at all.

    I sense it kills Melissa that she has to share an hour with Trish Regan.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 04:48 PM
    DaveW,
    I remind you the USSR was as well 'constitutional republic' with 'democratically elected' officials.
    Given the indebtness and clear self-destructing policies of the present republican incumbent, it is not entirely implausible to see a socialist revolution in America, North America.
    But on the other side 70% of the population is overweight, 80% lives in urban sprawls. I really dont see those people capable revolting as that would lead to either cardiovascular problems or serious exhaustion from excessive exercise.
    So chill out, no socialism on the horizon. Most likely it will be mild form of feudalism with the Chinese the feuds.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 05:00 PM
    This post is right on the money!

    The only good things about CNBC are the tickers. I usually turn off the sound. For a station that claims to be #1 in business, it certainly doesn't perform like it; you got a bunch of blowhards like Charlie Gasperino and Dillon Radigan lead by the biggest blowhard of all time, Larry Kudlow, the self-absorbed obnoxious idiot who never lets anyone else talk. His constant interupting is so rude, you'd think he was raised in a barn (apologies to the cows and horses).

    What kills me is the unrealistic optimism of this entire CNBC crew. Anyone who listens to these guys, especially that lunatic showman Cramer, deserves to have their bank account spanked. By the time he makes his Mad Money stock touts, he has already sold them to his paying customers well in advance of the show.

    I always say that most Americans readily accept mediocrity. Look at our political leadership. It's no different with financial TV; people actually think that these clowns know something about economics and the market. Trust me, they don't have a clue.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 05:19 PM
    There is no future if we don't get rid of the Fed. Reasonable thinking people should understand that the Fed is just a vehicle for banks and other financial institutions to make money. It is not regulated by the government nor anyone else. It only has a mandate to control inflation and promote economic growth. The problem is it has been given the uncontrolled power to print money. All this fiat money is propping up this financial humpty dumpty pyramid scheme.

    With a weak and moronic Fed chairman like Bernanke, who will cave in to market whining (the 75 pt. emergency cut, followed with a 50 pt. cut one week later), there is no hope. All the king's horsemen....
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 08:04 PM
    Summers is correct and if the rest of you were so damned smart you would be , healthy and wealthy by 37 like Rogers . Probably best to listen to a person that has done it instead of talk about it.

    And as far as herd mentality , the professionals are the herd.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 26 10:40 PM
    Maria Bartiromo is not smarter than a roll of toilet paper. Watch her on Jeopardy here:

    www.crossingwallstreet.../
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 27 12:10 AM
    Bubblevision -- I love that term!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 27 12:15 AM
    I saw the figure yesterday for the total dollar figure of bail-outs, loan guarantees, auction facilities, fed discount windows etc. since the Aug 07 crisis began. This is the total figure the taxpayers on on the hook for in one year:

    $1.43 TRILLION

    So far...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Nov 12 07:10 PM
    Socialism is not a form of government but rather a philosophy that relates to the form of ownership and management of the means of production in a state and how the products produced are distributed.


    On Jul 25 12:45 PM DaveW wrote:

    > barnburner, bone up on your international politics. The U.K. is
    > a "Constitutional Monarchy", also known as a "Parliamentary Democracy"
    > General elections (by the people, for the people) are held to elect
    > MPs (Members of Parliment). The party with the most MPs can elect
    > a Prime Minister. So, your point is made moot.
    Reply | Link to Comment
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