Apple Ups The Ante With 3G iPhone - But RIM's Almost Ready to Counter

by: Paul Carton July 11, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL / RIMM    
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Paul Carton

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It’s been just over a year since the iPhone was released, and Apple (AAPL) is upping the ante in the smart phone wars.

We’re talking about the release of the new 3G version of the iPhone.

Our latest ChangeWave survey of 3,567 consumers – conducted in the aftermath of Apple’s June 9th announcement on the release of its 3G model – shows the next generation iPhone having a tsunami-like impact on the smart phone market.

But hold on…

Market leader Research-In-Motion (RIMM) – maker of the ubiquitous BlackBerry – hasn’t taken this latest salvo lying down. The company has up to three new releases on the horizon that it expects will provide highly attractive alternatives to the 3G iPhone.

The Coming Apple Tsunami

We asked consumers who currently own a smart phone or who plan to buy one in the next 90 days to tell us the manufacturer.

RIM (42%; unchanged) holds steady as the consumer smart phone market leader among current smart phone owners, even as second place Palm (14%) has sunk to a record low.

But the biggest mover here is the Apple iPhone (11%; up 2-pts) – which continues to make major inroads in the consumer marketplace. Having gained market share for the fourth-consecutive survey, it is now close to wrestling the number two spot away from Palm.

Good news for Apple – but it’s when we asked respondents about their planned smart phone purchases over the next 90 days that the full extent of the marketplace transformation becomes apparent.

An astonishing 56% of respondents who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’re getting an Apple iPhone – a huge 21-pt leap from the previous survey.

The chart below shows just how dramatic a jump in market share this represents.

Going forward, RIM’s share of consumer planned purchases is set to take a significant hit over the next 90 days, falling 6-pts to 23%. Palm remains a far distant third with just 3%.

Note that the above chart focuses exclusively on the 10.5% of total survey respondents who say they plan on buying a smart phone during the next 90 days. The 10.5% represents a sharp jump from our previous survey in March, and it is the highest percentage of planned smart phone buyers we’ve recorded in a ChangeWave survey (see chart below).

So, what’s the most likely explanation for such a large-scale projected increase in smart phone buyers going forward? It’s the anticipation and publicity surrounding the imminent release of the 3G iPhone.

Another reason for Apple’s continued popularity is its incredible customer satisfaction rating. An extraordinary four-in-five iPhone owners (78%) report they’re Very Satisfied with their iPhone. RIM ranks second, with a highly respectable 54% of its customers saying they’re Very Satisfied. Palm (29%), while up a few points since our previous survey, still ranks near the bottom in terms of customer satisfaction.

In another positive for the new 3G iPhone, better than one-in-two current iPhone owners (55%) say they're Very Likely to buy the 3G iPhone for themselves or someone else in the future. And many don't plan to wait long. Among this group, half (50%) say they'll purchase within the first 90 days of release.

RIM Gets Set to Counterattack

While the 3G iPhone announcement has catapulted Apple into the lead over RIM in terms of planned consumer smart phone purchases, it should be remembered that RIM has a huge lead of its own in the corporate smart phone market. RIM is also still the leader among current owners in the consumer market.

Moreover, RIM isn’t sitting idly by while Apple roles out the 3G iPhone. The Canadian manufacturer has multiple plans in motion to counter Apple’s momentum among consumers – including an already announced new product release (the Bold) and two likely additional product releases (the Thunder and Kickstart).

Next week we’ll see what Alliance respondents have to say about RIM’s new counteroffensive – and how the smart phone wars continue to shake up the service provider space.

Get ready – multiple battles are underway.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article.

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This article has 8 comments:

  •  
    Jul 11 04:59 AM
    It would be so fun
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 08:09 AM
    if rimm can manage even a fraction of the momentum apple has with iphone2 they should be able to survive. but they have their work cut out for them.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 09:47 AM
    How's Rim going to match the iPhone OS X and SDK?

    OS X is Unix in your pocket including a history of development and maintenance going back 4 decades with contributions by the brightest all star computer scientists and developers throughout the journey.

    Programming the SDK is as powerful as "programming for a desktop".

    What does Rim base its development on?

    Game Over.

    Set.

    Match.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 10:29 AM
    I have never seen a line form for any RIMM product..
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 11:02 AM
    saying that RIMM will have it's own comparable phone is like saying that microsoft will have a great OS, eventually... the point here is that Apple is the top innovator... it's first, but it doesn't rest... it keeps innovating and STAYS first. other companies are trying to play catch up on everything Apple does...computers, mp3 players, and now smartphones (which are really getting mighty close to being shirt pocket computers). Though there's room for other players, I'll bet on Apple in this high stakes game. they have huge cash reserves, no debt, great retail space profits, great tech support and innovative profits. no, i don't work for Apple. I'm a retired stamp dealer.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 12:45 PM
    It's a little early to call it game over for RIM guys. Yes, Apple has the best mobile platform out there, but this does not automatically translate into death for all other platforms. Using that logic, Windows would be dead already as there is no question Apple makes a much better OS. Yet over the last many years they were only able to keep a small market share. The broader point is that while Apple has one relatively pricey phone with a large screen and wants to innovate on the software side going forward, RIM is quietly positioning the company for mass markets by offering lower priced models like the new clam shell (rumored to be sold for $50) and the curve update called Javelin (the EDGE radio will help keep costs very low so they can sell it cheaply). Even today you can find free Pearls and Curves with contracts. The real thing to watch here is how much mkt share RIM takes from moto, samsung, LG, nokia at the lower end as they work with carriers to offer more flexible data pricing. Well, I gotta go and buy my new iPod Touch! (Don't forget how many people will opt to buy the Touch and still be on the platform).
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 12:45 PM
    Once again, with feeling; iPhone is NOT just a "smartphone" - it is the first mass-market mobile, hand-held computer - which also can be used as a phone...

    But most of the people who write these things don't seem to get that - which is why Apple always leaves them (like the "competition"... in the dust.

    mollytjm, PK D'Cville, and some of the rest are quite right on all counts. Apple is and always has been an innovator of the best products and OS - and now the rest of the world is catching on.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Jul 11 12:46 PM
    RIM's counterattack appears to be delayed while iPhone 3G sells like crazy around the world, overwhelming computer systems.

    RIM down about 4.5% while market (and Apple) down about 1.5%.
    Reply | Link to Comment
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