On Second Thought, It's 61% Worse

by: Bespoke Investment Group November 07, 2008    

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Today's employment report for October showed that employers cut 240K jobs during the month, which was 40K worse than expected.  The bigger surprise, however, was the revision from last month.  In September, the BLS reported a decline of 159K jobs, but following this month's revision, the actual loss was 284K.  This disparity is a continuation of a trend that has been in place all year. 

In the table below, we compare the monthly changes in non-farm payrolls on a reported as well as a revised basis.  On a reported basis, the US economy lost 585K jobs through September, but once all the revisions are taken into account, the actual loss in jobs is at 939K, which represents a 61% increase in job losses.

Employment Report

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This article has 6 comments:

  •  
    Nov 07 02:58 PM
    I have commented so often about jobs and Main St. and proper investment for our economy vs. the malinvest and greed I will make this short:

    Energy independence = jobs = paying off debts = end of this recession, soon to be depression. No Main St., no Wall St.
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  •  
    Nov 07 06:41 PM
    The table above is very useful indeed. Unless the trend of unemployment abates or improves, there is unlikely to be sustained gains in the sp500. Another key indicator is housing, unless it bottoms the economy cannot recover with vigor.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Nov 07 10:28 PM
    great work on the unemployment table.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Nov 08 09:55 AM
    Is anyone doing research on how baby boomer retirements cause labor force growth to decline? Decreasing labor force growth rates during increasing unemployment will cause unemployment numbers to rise more quickly than usual.

    Also, undocumented workers are leaving the U.S. for other opportunities. pewhispanic.org/report...

    To the extent these workers were counted in the "labor force," they could also be contributing to the illusion of unemployment rising more quickly than expected.

    From the BLS:

    "Are undocumented immigrants counted in the surveys?

    Neither the establishment nor household survey is designed to identify the legal status of workers. Thus, while it is likely that both surveys include at least some undocumented immigrants, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in either survey. The household survey does include questions about whether respondents were born outside the United States. Data from these questions show that foreign-born workers accounted for 15.7 percent of the labor force in 2007 and 47.7 percent of the net increase in the labor force from 2000 to 2007."
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Nov 08 10:37 AM
    Maybe we should have had that question on the ballot during the Presidental Election. We would have an accurate number from the folks who voted.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Nov 08 04:19 PM
    "undocumented&quo... you mean "illegal", right?
    Reply | Link to Comment
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